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Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone

Author

Listed:
  • Nobuhito Mori

    (Kyoto University)

  • Nozomi Ariyoshi

    (Kyoto University)

  • Tomoya Shimura

    (Kyoto University)

  • Takuya Miyashita

    (Kyoto University)

  • Junichi Ninomiya

    (Kanazawa University)

Abstract

This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method to three major bays in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, using two mega-ensemble climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF. The sensitivity of MPS change relative to sea surface temperature (SST) change for three major bays in Japan is about 0.12 m/∘C during tropical cyclone season, which is about 1/10 of the change when considering SST rise only. Both the mean and variance of future MPS values will be much greater, especially in September and under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuhito Mori & Nozomi Ariyoshi & Tomoya Shimura & Takuya Miyashita & Junichi Ninomiya, 2021. "Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:164:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-02980-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karthik Balaguru & David R. Judi & L. Ruby Leung, 2016. "Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 99-110, September.
    2. Munehiko Yamaguchi & Johnny C. L. Chan & Il-Ju Moon & Kohei Yoshida & Ryo Mizuta, 2020. "Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, December.
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    4. Jennifer Irish & Donald Resio & Mary Cialone, 2009. "A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 183-205, October.
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