IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v41y2007i3p387-399.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity of high-resolution tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to surface flux parameterization

Author

Listed:
  • Chi-Sann Liou

Abstract

Surface flux parameterization schemes used in current dynamic models are primarily based upon measurements at low and moderate wind speeds. Recent studies show that these parameterization schemes may be incorrect at high wind speeds (e.g., tropical cyclone forecasts). Five high-resolution numerical model experiments are designed to assess the sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to changes in the surface flux parameterization. The sensitivity experiments are conducted by running 48 h forecasts of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) for six selected tropical cyclones with individual modifications to surface flux calculation that include: (1) limiting the surface stress for wind speeds greater than 33 m s −1 , or 64 knots (kt); (2) computing the stress at the top of the model bottom grid layer (MBGL) by averaging results from surface layer similarity and turbulence mixing parameterization for wind speeds greater than 33 m s −1 ; (3) increasing the roughness lengths for heat and moisture transfer by a factor of ten; (4) setting the roughness lengths for heat and moisture transfer to 1/10 of the momentum roughness length; and (5) cooling the sea surface temperature (SST) by a prescribed rate at high winds. Averaged responses for the six storms to these sensitivity tests show that: (i) the limit on surface stress at high winds significantly increases the cyclone intensity in 48 h forecasts; (ii) the averaged surface layer stress at high winds increases the cyclone intensity but to a much lesser degree than limiting the surface stress; (iii) large increases in the roughness lengths for heat and moisture transfer are needed to significantly impact the intensity forecast; (iv) the different roughness length formula for surface transfer coefficients notably increases C h /C d ratio from 0.59 to 0.79 for 25 m s −1 and 0.41 to 0.75 for 50 m s −1 that significantly increases the predicted cyclone intensity; and (v) cooling of the SST by −5.8°C in 48 h reduces the maximum surface wind speed by −32 kt, or 16.5 m s −1 , at 48 h forecast. These results suggest that a surface flux parameterization scheme suitable for tropical cyclone intensity forecast must correctly model the leveling-off character of surface stress and C h /C d ratio at high winds. All modifications to surface flux calculation have little influence on 48 h track forecasts, even though they may significantly impact the intensity forecasts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Chi-Sann Liou, 2007. "Sensitivity of high-resolution tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to surface flux parameterization," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 387-399, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:41:y:2007:i:3:p:387-399
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9046-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-006-9046-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-006-9046-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark D. Powell & Peter J. Vickery & Timothy A. Reinhold, 2003. "Reduced drag coefficient for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones," Nature, Nature, vol. 422(6929), pages 279-283, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amirinia, Gholamreza & Mafi, Somayeh & Mazaheri, Said, 2017. "Offshore wind resource assessment of Persian Gulf using uncertainty analysis and GIS," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 915-929.
    2. Wang, Hao & Wang, Tongguang & Ke, Shitang & Hu, Liang & Xie, Jiaojie & Cai, Xin & Cao, Jiufa & Ren, Yuxin, 2023. "Assessing code-based design wind loads for offshore wind turbines in China against typhoons," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 669-682.
    3. Jian Yang & Yu Chen & Hua Zhou & Zhongdong Duan, 2021. "A height-resolving tropical cyclone boundary layer model with vertical advection process," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 723-749, May.
    4. Wang, H. & Ke, S.T. & Wang, T.G. & Zhu, S.Y., 2020. "Typhoon-induced vibration response and the working mechanism of large wind turbine considering multi-stage effects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 740-758.
    5. Hung-Ju Shih & Chih-Hsin Chang & Wei-Bo Chen & Lee-Yaw Lin, 2018. "Identifying the Optimal Offshore Areas for Wave Energy Converter Deployments in Taiwanese Waters Based on 12-Year Model Hindcasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Wei, K. & Arwade, S.R. & Myers, A.T. & Hallowell, S. & Hajjar, J.F. & Hines, E.M. & Pang, W., 2016. "Toward performance-based evaluation for offshore wind turbine jacket support structures," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 709-721.
    7. Benjamin Bass & John N. Irza & Jennifer Proft & Philip Bedient & Clint Dawson, 2017. "Fidelity of the integrated kinetic energy factor as an indicator of storm surge impacts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 575-595, January.
    8. N. Zweers & V. Makin & J. Vries & G. Burgers, 2012. "On the influence of changes in the drag relation on surface wind speeds and storm surge forecasts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 207-219, June.
    9. Una Kim Miller & Christopher J. Zappa & Arnold L. Gordon & Seung-Tae Yoon & Craig Stevens & Won Sang Lee, 2024. "High Salinity Shelf Water production rates in Terra Nova Bay, Ross Sea from high-resolution salinity observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Kelin Hu & Qin Chen & Sytske Kimball, 2012. "Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1029-1050, April.
    11. Donald Resio & Jennifer Irish & Joannes Westerink & Nancy Powell, 2013. "The effect of uncertainty on estimates of hurricane surge hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1443-1459, April.
    12. Carl Drews, 2013. "Using Wind Setdown and Storm Surge on Lake Erie to Calibrate the Air-Sea Drag Coefficient," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Gozde Guney Dogan & Efim Pelinovsky & Andrey Zaytsev & Ayse Duha Metin & Gulizar Ozyurt Tarakcioglu & Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner & Bora Yalciner & Ira Didenkulova, 2021. "Long wave generation and coastal amplification due to propagating atmospheric pressure disturbances," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(2), pages 1195-1221, March.
    14. Han, T. & McCann, G. & Mücke, T.A. & Freudenreich, K., 2014. "How can a wind turbine survive in tropical cyclone?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 3-10.
    15. Jijian Lian & Yaya Jia & Haijun Wang & Fang Liu, 2016. "Numerical Study of the Aerodynamic Loads on Offshore Wind Turbines under Typhoon with Full Wind Direction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, August.
    16. Eric Oliver & Jinyu Sheng & Keith Thompson & Jorge Blanco, 2012. "Extreme surface and near-bottom currents in the northwest Atlantic," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1425-1446, November.
    17. Adam Bechle & Chin Wu, 2014. "The Lake Michigan meteotsunamis of 1954 revisited," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(1), pages 155-177, October.
    18. Vahid Valamanesh & Andrew T. Myers & Sanjay R. Arwade & Jerome F. Hajjar & Eric Hines & Weichiang Pang, 2016. "Wind-wave prediction equations for probabilistic offshore hurricane hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 541-562, August.
    19. V. Cardone & A. Cox, 2009. "Tropical cyclone wind field forcing for surge models: critical issues and sensitivities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 29-47, October.
    20. Yashvant Das, 2018. "Parametric modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(2), pages 1049-1084, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:41:y:2007:i:3:p:387-399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.