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Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Murphy
  • Richard Washington
  • Thomas Downing
  • Randall Martin
  • Gina Ziervogel
  • Anthony Preston
  • Martin Todd
  • Ruth Butterfield
  • Jim Briden

Abstract

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Murphy & Richard Washington & Thomas Downing & Randall Martin & Gina Ziervogel & Anthony Preston & Martin Todd & Ruth Butterfield & Jim Briden, 2001. "Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 171-196, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:171-196
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011160904414
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Pfaff & K. Broad & M. Glantz, 1999. "Who benefits from climate forecasts?," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 645-646, February.
    2. Katz,Richard W. & Murphy,Allan H. (ed.), 1997. "Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434201, October.
    3. M. J. Rodwell & D. P. Rowell & C. K. Folland, 1999. "Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 398(6725), pages 320-323, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sardorbek Musayev & Jonathan Mellor & Tara Walsh & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2021. "Development of an Agent-Based Model for Weather Forecast Information Exchange in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.
    2. David Hui & Karen Shum & Ji Chen & Shyh-Chin Chen & Jack Ritchie & John Roads, 2007. "Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(1), pages 193-207, July.
    3. Gina Ziervogel & Sukaina Bharwani & Thomas E. Downing, 2006. "Adapting to climate variability: Pumpkins, people and policy," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 294-305, November.
    4. Kaiza R. Kaganzi & Aida Cuni-Sanchez & Fatuma Mcharazo & Emanuel H. Martin & Robert A. Marchant & Jessica P. R. Thorn, 2021. "Local Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses from Two Mountain Regions in Tanzania," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Carla Roncoli & Christine Jost & Paul Kirshen & Moussa Sanon & Keith Ingram & Mark Woodin & Léopold Somé & Frédéric Ouattara & Bienvenue Sanfo & Ciriaque Sia & Pascal Yaka & Gerrit Hoogenboom, 2009. "From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 433-460, February.
    6. Osgood, Daniel E. & Suarez, Pablo & Hansen, James & Carriquiry, Miguel & Mishra, Ashok, 2008. "Integrating seasonal forecasts and insurance for adaptation among subsistence farmers : the case of Malawi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4651, The World Bank.
    7. David Marcolino Nielsen & Marcio Cataldi & André Luiz Belém & Ana Luiza Spadano Albuquerque, 2016. "Local indices for the South American monsoon system and its impacts on Southeast Brazilian precipitation patterns," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 909-928, September.
    8. Ziervogel, Gina & Bithell, Mike & Washington, Richard & Downing, Tom, 2005. "Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-26, January.

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