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Atmospheric and Climatic Hazards: Improved Monitoring and Prediction for Disaster Mitigation

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  • Neville Nicholls

Abstract

The last few years have seen enormous damage and lossof life from climate and weather phenomena. The mostdamaging events have included the severe 1997/98 ElNiño (with its near-global impacts), HurricaneMitch, and floods in China in mid-1998. What have welearnt regarding the causes, variability, andpredictability, of these phenomena? Can we predict theoccurrence of these extreme events, and therebymitigate their damage? This paper reviews what we havelearnt in the last decade or so regarding thepredictability of these climate and weather extremes.The view starts with the largest (El Niño) scales,and works towards the scale of individualthunderstorms. It focuses on the practical outcomes ofour improved knowledge with regard to decreasing theimpact of natural disasters, rather than describing indetail the scientific knowledge underlying theseoutcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion ofsome of the factors that still restrict our ability tomitigate the deleterious effects of atmospheric andclimatic hazards. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Neville Nicholls, 2001. "Atmospheric and Climatic Hazards: Improved Monitoring and Prediction for Disaster Mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 137-155, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:137-155
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011130223164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Pfaff & K. Broad & M. Glantz, 1999. "Who benefits from climate forecasts?," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 645-646, February.
    2. Fischhoff, Baruch, 1994. "What forecasts (seem to) mean," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 387-403, November.
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    1. Sabri Alkan & Uğur Karadurmuş, 2023. "Risk assessment of natural and other hazard factors on drowning incidents in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2459-2475, September.
    2. David Hui & Karen Shum & Ji Chen & Shyh-Chin Chen & Jack Ritchie & John Roads, 2007. "Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(1), pages 193-207, July.
    3. Gordon McBean, 2004. "Climate Change and Extreme Weather: A Basis for Action," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(1), pages 177-190, January.

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