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Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model

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Listed:
  • David Hui
  • Karen Shum
  • Ji Chen
  • Shyh-Chin Chen
  • Jack Ritchie
  • John Roads

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of July–August–September 2003 and April–May–June 2004. The regional model is based on the Regional Spectral Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United States. It is the first time that the model has been applied to a region dominated by the East Asian Monsoon. The article shows that the regional climate model, when being forced by reasonably good forecasts from a global model, can generate useful seasonal rainfall forecasts for the region, where it is dominated by the East Asia monsoon. The spatial details of the dry conditions obtained from the regional climate model forecast are also found to be comparable with the observed distribution. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • David Hui & Karen Shum & Ji Chen & Shyh-Chin Chen & Jack Ritchie & John Roads, 2007. "Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(1), pages 193-207, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:42:y:2007:i:1:p:193-207
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9068-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sarah Murphy & Richard Washington & Thomas Downing & Randall Martin & Gina Ziervogel & Anthony Preston & Martin Todd & Ruth Butterfield & Jim Briden, 2001. "Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 171-196, March.
    2. Neville Nicholls, 2001. "Atmospheric and Climatic Hazards: Improved Monitoring and Prediction for Disaster Mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 137-155, March.
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