IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/bindes/v38y2002i1p75-91.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Rosamond Naylor
  • Walter Falcon
  • Nikolas Wada
  • Daniel Rochberg

Abstract

Despite the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Nino years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Nino years than La Nina years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosamond Naylor & Walter Falcon & Nikolas Wada & Daniel Rochberg, 2002. "Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 75-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:38:y:2002:i:1:p:75-91
    DOI: 10.1080/000749102753620293
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000749102753620293
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/000749102753620293?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Pfaff & K. Broad & M. Glantz, 1999. "Who benefits from climate forecasts?," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 645-646, February.
    2. Maamun, M & Suherman, O & Baco, Dj & Dahlan, M & Subandi, 2001. "Impact of Public- and Private- Sector Maize Breeding Research in Asia, 1966-1997/98: Impact of Breeding Research on Maize Production and Distribution in Indonesia," Impact Studies 296891, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Climate change and vulnerability to poverty: an empirical investigation in rural Indonesia," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber & Guanghua Wan (ed.), The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 5, pages 118-146, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Yayan Apriyana & Elza Surmaini & Woro Estiningtyas & Aris Pramudia & Fadhlullah Ramadhani & Suciantini Suciantini & Erni Susanti & Rima Purnamayani & Haris Syahbuddin, 2021. "The Integrated Cropping Calendar Information System: A Coping Mechanism to Climate Variability for Sustainable Agriculture in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Jonatan A. Lassa & Allen Yu-Hung Lai & Tian Goh, 2016. "Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 19-33, November.
    4. Emmanuel Skoufias & Roy S. Katayama & B. Essama-Nssah, 2012. "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 351-368, December.
    5. Yamauchi, Futoshi & Sumaryanto, Sony & Dewina, Reno, 2010. "Climate Change, Perceptions and the Heterogeneity of Adaptation and Rice Productivity: Evidence from Indonesian Villages," Working Papers 13, JICA Research Institute.
    6. Olivia Muza, 2017. "El Nino-Southern Oscillation Influences on Food Security," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(5), pages 268-268, September.
    7. You, Liangzhi, 2012. "A tale of two countries: Spatial and temporal patterns of rice productivity in China and Brazil," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 690-703.
    8. Thiede, Brian C. & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Climate exposures and child undernutrition: Evidence from Indonesia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    9. World Bank, 2010. "Climate Change and Economic Policies in APEC Economies : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 2948, The World Bank Group.
    10. You, Liangzhi & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Fang, Cheng & Wood, Stanley, 2005. "Impact of global warming on Chinese wheat productivity:," EPTD discussion papers 143, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Publications - Reports 13039, The World Bank Group.
    12. Edwards, Ryan B. & Naylor, Rosamond L. & Higgins, Matthew M. & Falcon, Walter P., 2020. "Causes of Indonesia’s forest fires," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Sardorbek Musayev & Jonathan Mellor & Tara Walsh & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2021. "Development of an Agent-Based Model for Weather Forecast Information Exchange in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Sanchirico, James, 2004. "A Social Scientist's Perspective on the Potential Benefits of the Census of Marine Life," RFF Working Paper Series dp-04-23-rev, Resources for the Future.
    4. Olivia Muza, 2017. "El Nino-Southern Oscillation Influences on Food Security," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(5), pages 268-268, September.
    5. Sarah Murphy & Richard Washington & Thomas Downing & Randall Martin & Gina Ziervogel & Anthony Preston & Martin Todd & Ruth Butterfield & Jim Briden, 2001. "Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 171-196, March.
    6. Shrader, Jeffrey, 2014. "Forecasts and Adaptation," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170626, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Sarah Alexander & Ezana Atsbeha & Selam Negatu & Kristen Kirksey & Dominique Brossard & Elizabeth Holzer & Paul Block, 2020. "Development of an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2021-2042, October.
    8. Ashley R. Coles & Christopher A. Scott, 2009. "Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and variability in semi‐arid rural southeastern Arizona, USA," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 297-309, November.
    9. Miguel A. Carriquiry & Walter E. Baethgen, 2016. "Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management: Implications for Insurance Design," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-03, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    10. Sheriff, Glenn & Osgood, Daniel E., 2005. "Shepherd's Dilemma," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19340, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Phillips, J. G. & Deane, D. & Unganai, L. & Chimeli, A., 2002. "Implications of farm-level response to seasonal climate forecasts for aggregate grain production in Zimbabwe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 351-369, December.
    12. Neville Nicholls, 2001. "Atmospheric and Climatic Hazards: Improved Monitoring and Prediction for Disaster Mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 137-155, March.
    13. Carla Roncoli & Benjamin Orlove & Merit Kabugo & Milton Waiswa, 2011. "Cultural styles of participation in farmers’ discussions of seasonal climate forecasts in Uganda," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 28(1), pages 123-138, February.
    14. Sedjo, Roger & Jagger, Pamela & White, William, 1999. "El Niño, Ice Storms, and the Market for Residential Fuelwood in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern U.S," RFF Working Paper Series dp-99-44, Resources for the Future.
    15. Walter Falcon & Rosamond Naylor & Whitney Smith & Marshall Burke & Ellen McCullough, 2004. "Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 355-377.
    16. Jagger, Pamela & White, William & Sedjo, Roger A., 1999. "El Nino, Ice Storms, and the Market for Residential Fuelwood in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern U.S," Discussion Papers 10535, Resources for the Future.
    17. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    18. Antony Millner, 2012. "Climate prediction for adaptation: Who needs what?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 143-167, January.
    19. Javier Tomasella & Patrícia Pinho & Laura Borma & José Marengo & Carlos Nobre & Olga Bittencourt & Maria Prado & Daniel Rodriguez & Luz Cuartas, 2013. "The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 723-746, February.
    20. Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela & Bernier, Quinn & Haglund, Eric, 2013. "The six "ins" of climate-smart agriculture: Inclusive institutions for information, innovation, investment, and insurance," CAPRi working papers 114, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:38:y:2002:i:1:p:75-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CBIE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.