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Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers

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  • Ziervogel, Gina
  • Bithell, Mike
  • Washington, Richard
  • Downing, Tom

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  • Ziervogel, Gina & Bithell, Mike & Washington, Richard & Downing, Tom, 2005. "Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:83:y:2005:i:1:p:1-26
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    1. Rainer Hegselmann & Ulrich Krause, 2002. "Opinion Dynamics and Bounded Confidence Models, Analysis and Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5(3), pages 1-2.
    2. Ingram, K. T. & Roncoli, M. C. & Kirshen, P. H., 2002. "Opportunities and constraints for farmers of west Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 331-349, December.
    3. Patt, Anthony, 2001. "Understanding uncertainty: forecasting seasonal climate for farmers in Zimbabwe," Risk, Decision and Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 105-119, June.
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    5. Anderson, Jock R., 2003. "Risk in rural development: challenges for managers and policy makers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 161-197.
    6. Sarah Murphy & Richard Washington & Thomas Downing & Randall Martin & Gina Ziervogel & Anthony Preston & Martin Todd & Ruth Butterfield & Jim Briden, 2001. "Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 171-196, March.
    7. Gadgil, Sulochana & Seshagiri Rao, P. R. & Narahari Rao, K., 2002. "Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: rainfed groundnut in southern India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 431-457, December.
    8. Bruce Edmonds & Scott Moss & Steve Wallis, 1996. "Logic, Reasoning and A Programming Language for Simulating Economic and Business Processes with Artificially Intelligent Agents," Discussion Papers 009, Manchester Metropolitan University, Centre for Policy Modelling.
    9. Olivier Barreteau & François Bousquet & Jean-Marie Attonaty, 2001. "Role-Playing Games for Opening the Black Box of Multi-Agent Systems: Method and Lessons of Its Application to Senegal River Valley Irrigated Systems," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 4(2), pages 1-5.
    10. Hansen, J. W., 2002. "Applying seasonal climate prediction to agricultural production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 305-307, December.
    11. Hallie Eakin, 2000. "Smallholder Maize Production and Climatic Risk: A Case Study from Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 19-36, April.
    12. Barry Smit & Ian Burton & Richard Klein & J. Wandel, 2000. "An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 223-251, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fraser J. Morgan & Philip Brown & Adam J. Daigneault, 2015. "Simulation vs. Definition: Differing Approaches to Setting Probabilities for Agent Behaviour," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Andrieu, Nadine & Descheemaeker, Katrien & Sanou, Thierry & Chia, Eduardo, 2015. "Effects of technical interventions on flexibility of farming systems in Burkina Faso: Lessons for the design of innovations in West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 125-137.
    3. Sardorbek Musayev & Jonathan Mellor & Tara Walsh & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2021. "Development of an Agent-Based Model for Weather Forecast Information Exchange in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Choi, Hyung Sik & Schneider, Uwe A. & Rasche, Livia & Cui, Junbo & Schmid, Erwin & Held, Hermann, 2015. "Potential effects of perfect seasonal climate forecasting on agricultural markets, welfare and land use: A case study of Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 177-189.
    5. Farid, K. S. & Tanny, N. Z. & Sarma, P. K., 2016. "Factors affecting adoption of improved farm practices by the farmers of Northern Bangladesh," Journal of the Bangladesh Agricultural University, Bangladesh Agricultural University Research System (BAURES), vol. 13.
    6. Sylvie Geisendorf, 2018. "Evolutionary Climate-Change Modelling: A Multi-Agent Climate-Economic Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 921-951, October.
    7. Rich, Karl M. & Ross, R. Brent & Baker, A. Derek & Negassa, Asfaw, 2011. "Quantifying value chain analysis in the context of livestock systems in developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 214-222, April.
    8. Chiputwa, Brian & Blundo-Canto, Genowefa & Steward, Peter & Andrieu, Nadine & Ndiaye, Ousmane, 2022. "Co-production, uptake of weather and climate services, and welfare impacts on farmers in Senegal: A panel data approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Yan, Dan & Schneider, Uwe A. & Schmid, Erwin & Huang, He Qing & Pan, Lihu & Dilly, Oliver, 2013. "Interactions between land use change, regional development, and climate change in the Poyang Lake district from 1985 to 2035," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 10-21.
    10. Nidumolu, U.B. & Lubbers, M. & Kanellopoulos, A. & van Ittersum, M.K. & Kadiyala, D.M. & Sreenivas, G., 2016. "Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 175-184.
    11. Delorit, Justin D. & Parker, Dominic P. & Block, Paul J., 2019. "An agro-economic approach to framing perennial farm-scale water resources demand management for water rights markets," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 68-81.
    12. Gina Ziervogel & Sukaina Bharwani & Thomas E. Downing, 2006. "Adapting to climate variability: Pumpkins, people and policy," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 294-305, November.
    13. Sylvie Geisendorf, 2016. "The impact of personal beliefs on climate change: the “battle of perspectives” revisited," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 551-580, July.
    14. Gitonga, Zachary M. & Visser, Martine & Mulwa, Chalmers, 2020. "Can climate information salvage livelihoods in arid and semiarid lands? An evaluation of access, use and impact in Namibia," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    15. Tyler Freeman & James Nolan & Richard Schoney, 2009. "An Agent‐Based Simulation Model of Structural Change in Canadian Prairie Agriculture, 1960–2000," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 537-554, December.
    16. N. Marshall & I. Gordon & A. Ash, 2011. "The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 511-529, August.
    17. Williams, T.G. & Guikema, S.D. & Brown, D.G. & Agrawal, A., 2020. "Resilience and equity: Quantifying the distributional effects of resilience-enhancing strategies in a smallholder agricultural system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    18. Beteo Zongo & Thomas Dogot & Patrice Toe, 2022. "Farmers' Perception of Indigenous Forecast and Climate Information in West Africa: an Evidence-based Review," Sustainable Agriculture Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(3), pages 1-10, August.
    19. Fadiran, Gideon & Fadiran, David & Ibn-Mohammed, Taofeeq, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy effects on development transition – Views from Agent based model," MPRA Paper 103197, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2018.
    20. Stefano Balbi & Carlo Giupponi, 2009. "Reviewing agent-based modelling of socio-ecosystems: a methodology for the analysis of climate change adaptation and sustainability," Working Papers 2009_15, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    21. Sardorbek Musayev & Jonathan Mellor & Tara Walsh & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2022. "Application of Agent-Based Modeling in Agricultural Productivity in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
    22. Mintewab Bezabih & Remidius Ruhinduka & Mare Sarr, 2016. "Climate change perception and system of rice intensification (SRI) impact on dispersion and downside risk: a moment approximation approach," GRI Working Papers 256, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

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