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Selection of shelters after earthquake using probabilistic seismic aftershock hazard analysis and remote sensing

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  • Salma Ommi

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Milad Janalipour

    (Aerospace Research Institute)

Abstract

After a major earthquake, one of the main tasks is to identify temporary shelters. In this study, we utilized probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis based on land use criteria to minimize the risks of determining temporary or fixed shelters. We selected the recent Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake (2017) in Iran for analyzing aftershock hazards. Then, we estimated the expected high-frequency ground motions based on seismicity parameters and the modified Omori law parameters in 10 and 30 days after the mainshock. Further, environmental factors including slope, elevation, open spaces area, and distance from rivers were included in the analysis. The analytical hierarchy process and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) weighing methods were employed to rank the environmental factors plus peak ground acceleration components. The results indicated that the southern parts of the Sarpol-e Zahab city were mostly appropriate areas to build shelters. The selected criteria and decision-making methods may provide appropriate locations for shelter ranking.

Suggested Citation

  • Salma Ommi & Milad Janalipour, 2022. "Selection of shelters after earthquake using probabilistic seismic aftershock hazard analysis and remote sensing," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 345-363, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:113:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05303-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05303-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. H. Zafarani & M. Mousavi, 2014. "Applicability of different ground-motion prediction models for northern Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1199-1228, September.
    2. Yunjia Ma & Wei Xu & Lianjie Qin & Xiujuan Zhao, 2019. "Site Selection Models in Natural Disaster Shelters: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Matthew C. Gerstenberger & Stefan Wiemer & Lucile M. Jones & Paul A. Reasenberg, 2005. "Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7040), pages 328-331, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fotios M. Siokis, 2024. "Exploring the Dynamic Behavior of Crude Oil Prices in Times of Crisis: Quantifying the Aftershock Sequence of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-13, September.

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