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Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew C. Gerstenberger

    (US Geological Survey)

  • Stefan Wiemer

    (Institute of Geophysics)

  • Lucile M. Jones

    (US Geological Survey)

  • Paul A. Reasenberg

    (US Geological Survey)

Abstract

Earthquake Forecasting The difficulty of predicting individual earthquakes accurately often obscures the progress made by seismologists studying the probability of earthquake occurrence. A new approach aims to keep the public in touch with what seismologists know. To coincide with the launch of a new short-term earthquake forecasting system for California, a new website (pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/step) gives a measure of the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The methodology combines an earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with a model of clustering. The resulting forecasts will provide a better understanding of the daily changes in earthquake hazard to the public, media and emergency planners. Cover: San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake (Rykoff Collection/CORBIS).

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew C. Gerstenberger & Stefan Wiemer & Lucile M. Jones & Paul A. Reasenberg, 2005. "Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7040), pages 328-331, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:435:y:2005:i:7040:d:10.1038_nature03622
    DOI: 10.1038/nature03622
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    Cited by:

    1. Salma Ommi & Milad Janalipour, 2022. "Selection of shelters after earthquake using probabilistic seismic aftershock hazard analysis and remote sensing," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 345-363, August.
    2. Asher, Eitan E. & Havlin, Shlomo & Moshel, Shay & Ashkenazy, Yosef, 2023. "Increased earthquake rate prior to mainshocks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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