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River flooding in a changing climate: rainfall-discharge trends, controlling factors, and susceptibility mapping for the Mahi catchment, Western India

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  • Sumit Das

    (Savitribai Phule Pune University)

  • Gianvito Scaringi

    (Charles University)

Abstract

The Mahi—one of the major rivers in Western India—is subject to frequent major flooding, which severely affects the local economy and infrastructure. Little has been done, however, to assess the flood patterns and severity along its course. Here, the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests are used to identify long-term trends of precipitation and peak streamflow at multiple locations in the catchment. Then, flood susceptibility mapping is performed by the analytical hierarchy process, accounting for 14 geomorphic, hydraulic, and geologic factors. The analyses suggest a decline in total precipitation and peak flow discharges at most locations, consistently with the general climatic trend of the area, featuring a weakening summer monsoon. Nonetheless, a significant portion of the catchment area remains highly susceptible to flooding, with stream powers capable of mobilizing boulders up to 1 m in size in extraordinary floods. These results can support the work of engineers and policymakers dealing with floods in the study area, but the proposed methodology can also be applied to other fluvial catchments to evaluate the role of climate trends in modulating flood susceptibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumit Das & Gianvito Scaringi, 2021. "River flooding in a changing climate: rainfall-discharge trends, controlling factors, and susceptibility mapping for the Mahi catchment, Western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2439-2459, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04927-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04927-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thuy Linh Nguyen & Chisato Asahi & Thi An Tran & Ngoc Hanh Le, 2022. "Indicator-based approach for flood vulnerability assessment in ancient heritage city of Hoi An, Central Region of Vietnam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 2357-2385, November.
    2. Swati Maurya & Prashant K. Srivastava & Lu Zhuo & Aradhana Yaduvanshi & R. K. Mall, 2023. "Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2675-2696, May.
    3. Fatemeh Rezaie & Mahdi Panahi & Sayed M. Bateni & Changhyun Jun & Christopher M. U. Neale & Saro Lee, 2022. "Novel hybrid models by coupling support vector regression (SVR) with meta-heuristic algorithms (WOA and GWO) for flood susceptibility mapping," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1247-1283, November.

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