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An Application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR Datasets for Drought Variability Analysis in Iran

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  • Tayeb Raziei
  • Isabella Bordi
  • Luis Pereira

Abstract

The lack of reliable and updated precipitation datasets is the most important limitation that hinders establishing a drought monitoring and early warning system in Iran. To overcome this obstacle, we have evaluated the applicability of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR precipitation datasets for drought analysis in Iran. For this purpose, drought variability across the country has been analyzed through the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on 12-month time scale based on the common period 1951–2005. For each dataset, by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) to the SPI field and Varimax rotation, the studied area has been regionalized into a few distinctive sub-regions characterized by independent climatic variability. Results have been checked against observations at 32 rain gauge stations having reliable data for the study period. Both GPCC and NCEP/NCAR datasets identify the same sub-regions of drought variability and they are in good agreement with observations. However, the NCEP rotated principal component scores associated with the sub-regions show different time variability with respect to the behaviours captured by GPCC, on one hand, and observations, on the other hand. It seems that, in central Iran such differences concern mainly the period before the seventies. Thus, the results suggest that GPCC dataset is a useful tool for drought monitoring in Iran and it can be used to complement the information provided by rain gauge observations. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a better agreement with observations for the period 1970–2005 than for 1951–2005, and its discrepancies in the regional time variability of drought with respect to GPCC and observations should be taken into account when periods before the seventies are considered. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

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  • Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2011. "An Application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR Datasets for Drought Variability Analysis in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1075-1086, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:4:p:1075-1086
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9657-1
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    1. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2008. "Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1277-1296, September.
    2. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2007. "Prediction of SPI Drought Class Transitions Using Markov Chains," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(10), pages 1813-1827, October.
    3. Tayeb Raziei & Bahram Saghafian & Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira & Isabella Bordi, 2009. "Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 439-455, February.
    4. B. Bonaccorso & I. Bordi & A. Cancelliere & G. Rossi & A. Sutera, 2003. "Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(4), pages 273-296, August.
    5. Sergio Vicente-Serrano, 2006. "Differences in Spatial Patterns of Drought on Different Time Scales: An Analysis of the Iberian Peninsula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(1), pages 37-60, February.
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    1. Tayeb Raziei & Diogo Martins & Isabella Bordi & João Santos & Maria Portela & Luis Pereira & Alfonso Sutera, 2015. "SPI Modes of Drought Spatial and Temporal Variability in Portugal: Comparing Observations, PT02 and GPCC Gridded Datasets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 487-504, January.
    2. Brunella Bonaccorso & David Peres & Antonio Castano & Antonino Cancelliere, 2015. "SPI-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Areal Extent in Sicily," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 459-470, January.
    3. Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2013. "Regional Drought Modes in Iran Using the SPI: The Effect of Time Scale and Spatial Resolution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(6), pages 1661-1674, April.
    4. Seyedeh Mahboobeh Jafari & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Maryam Dehghani & Mohammadali Alijanian, 2020. "Evaluation of two satellite-based products against ground-based observation for drought analysis in the southern part of Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1249-1267, July.
    5. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    6. Mohammad Ghadami & Tayeb Raziei & Mohsen Amini & Reza Modarres, 2020. "Regionalization of drought severity–duration index across Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2813-2827, September.
    7. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2016. "Parametric and Non-Parametric Trend of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Using RDI Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5479-5500, November.
    8. Alireza Shokoohi & Reza Morovati, 2015. "Basinwide Comparison of RDI and SPI Within an IWRM Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2011-2026, April.

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