IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i8p2763-d162028.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities

Author

Listed:
  • Huey-Lin Lee

    (Department of Economics, National Chengchi University, 116 Taipei City, Taiwan)

  • Yu-Pin Lin

    (Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, 10617 Taipei City, Taiwan)

  • Joy R. Petway

    (Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, 10617 Taipei City, Taiwan)

Abstract

Global warming, coupled with disparate national population growth projections, could exert significant pressure on food prices, increasing the risk of food insecurity, particularly for net-importing countries. We investigated projected eventualities for a comprehensive set of 133 countries by the year 2030, and identified changes in the global agricultural crop trading pattern, with simulations from a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We based our model on population growth and temperature scenarios, as per the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Our simulations suggest an increase of 4.9% and 6.4% in global average prices and aggregate export crop volumes, respectively. This global exports expansion requires an increased 4.46% in current global aggregate crop output, since population growth raises demand, and thus, global average crop prices, further aggravating net importing countries’ financial burdens for food acquisition. Conversely, net exporting countries will fare better in the projected scenario due to increased agricultural income, as they are able to increase crop exports to meet the rising global demand and price. The gap in global income distribution widens, given that the majority of developing countries are coincidently located in tropical zones which are projected to experience negative crop yield shocks, while industrialized countries are located in cold and temperate zones projected to have favorable crop yield changes. National and international policy measures aimed at effectively alleviating net importing countries’ food security issues should also consider how global crop yields are geographically and diversely impacted by climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Huey-Lin Lee & Yu-Pin Lin & Joy R. Petway, 2018. "Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:8:p:2763-:d:162028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/8/2763/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/8/2763/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chalise, Sudarshan & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S. & Sarker, Tapan, 2017. "A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-50.
    2. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2016. "Estimation of Climate Change Damage Functions for 140 Regions in the GTAP 9 Database," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(2), pages 78-115, December.
    3. Lee, Huey-Lin & Hertel, Thomas & Rose, Steven & Avetisyan, Misak, 2008. "An Integrated Global Land Use Data Base for CGE Analysis of Climate Policy Options," GTAP Working Papers 2603, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    5. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    6. Bosello, Francesco & Eboli, Fabio & Pierfederici, Roberta, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. An Updated CGE Point of View," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 121700, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Roson, Roberto, 2010. "Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 515-533, October.
    8. Roberto Roson & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 270-285.
    9. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Climate change and agriculture under CO2 fertilization effects and farm level adaptation: Where do the models meet?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 556-571.
    10. Francesco Bosello & Ramiro Parrado, 2014. "Climate Change Impacts and Market Driven Adaptation: the Costs of Inaction Including Market Rigidities," Working Papers 2014.64, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Deepak K. Ray & James S. Gerber & Graham K. MacDonald & Paul C. West, 2015. "Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, May.
    12. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    13. Wolfram Mauser & Gernot Klepper & Florian Zabel & Ruth Delzeit & Tobias Hank & Birgitta Putzenlechner & Alvaro Calzadilla, 2015. "Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    15. Baldos, Uris Lantz, 2017. "Development of GTAP version 9 Land Use and Land Cover database for years 2004, 2007 and 2011," GTAP Research Memoranda 5424, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    16. Sherman Robinson & Hans Meijl & Dirk Willenbockel & Hugo Valin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Toshihiko Masui & Ron Sands & Marshall Wise & Katherine Calvin & Petr Havlik & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Andrzej Tabe, 2014. "Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 21-35, January.
    17. Francesco Bosello & Fabio Eboli & Roberta Pierfederici, 2012. "Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, February.
    18. Roberto Roson & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 270-285.
    19. Sudarshan Chalise & Dr Athula Naranpanawa, 2016. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A general equilibrium analysis of land re-allocation in Nepal," EcoMod2016 9272, EcoMod.
    20. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, April.
    21. De Salvo, Maria & Raffaelli, Roberta & Moser, Riccarda, 2013. "The impact of climate change on permanent crops in an Alpine region: A Ricardian analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 23-32.
    22. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    23. Leslie Lipper & Philip Thornton & Bruce M. Campbell & Tobias Baedeker & Ademola Braimoh & Martin Bwalya & Patrick Caron & Andrea Cattaneo & Dennis Garrity & Kevin Henry & Ryan Hottle & Louise Jackson , 2014. "Climate-smart agriculture for food security," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1068-1072, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, the World Bank, Washington D.C., 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity," EcoMod2016 9167, EcoMod.
    3. Gabriele Standardi, 2023. "Exploring market-driven adaptation to climate change in a general equilibrium global trade model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 1-29, February.
    4. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2017. "The macroeconomic impact of future water scarcity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1141-1162.
    5. Theodoros N. Chatzivasileiadis & Marjan W. Hofkes & Onno J. Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Full economic impacts of sea level rise: loss of productive resources and transport disruptions," Working Paper Series 09916, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    7. Valeria Costantini & Anil Markandya & Elena Paglialunga & Giorgia Sforna, 2018. "Impact and distribution of climatic damages: a methodological proposal with a dynamic CGE model applied to global climate negotiations," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(3), pages 809-843, December.
    8. Ramiro Parrado & Francesco Bosello & Elisa Delpiazzo & Jochen Hinkel & Daniel Lincke & Sally Brown, 2020. "Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 283-302, May.
    9. Dellink, Rob & Lanzi, Elisa, 2017. "The joint economic consequences of climate change and air pollution," Conference papers 332909, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Abeysekara, Walimuni Chamindri Sewanka Mendis & Siriwardana, Mahinda & Meng, Samuel, 2023. "Economic consequences of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of South Asia: A case study of Sri Lanka," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 435-450.
    11. Rob Dellink & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2019. "The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(2), pages 309-363, February.
    12. Theodoros N. Chatzivasileiadis & Marjan W. Hofkes & Onno J. Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Full economic impacts of sea level rise: loss of productive resources and transport disruptions," Working Paper Series 9916, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    13. Rob Dellink & Hyunjeong Hwang & Elisa Lanzi & Jean Chateau, 2017. "International trade consequences of climate change," OECD Trade and Environment Working Papers 2017/1, OECD Publishing.
    14. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    15. Richard S. J. Tol & Robert J. Nicholls & Sally Brown & Jochen Hinkel & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Tom Spencer & Mark Schuerch, 2016. "Comment on ‘The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment’," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(2), pages 341-344, June.
    16. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    17. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    18. Standardi, Gabriele & Dasgupta, Shouro, 2020. "Welfare implications of increasing spatial resolution in national CGE models for climate change impact assessment," Conference papers 333202, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Eshita Gupta & Bharat Ramaswami & E. Somanathan, 2021. "The Distributional Impact of Climate Change: Why Food Prices Matter," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 249-275, July.
    20. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2016. "Estimation of Climate Change Damage Functions for 140 Regions in the GTAP 9 Database," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(2), pages 78-115, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:8:p:2763-:d:162028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.