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The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China

Author

Listed:
  • Shilong Piao

    (College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Batiment 709, CE L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France)

  • Yao Huang

    (State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Zehao Shen

    (College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University)

  • Shushi Peng

    (College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University)

  • Junsheng Li

    (Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences)

  • Liping Zhou

    (College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University)

  • Hongyan Liu

    (College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University)

  • Yuecun Ma

    (College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University)

  • Yihui Ding

    (Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46 Zhongguancun Na Da Jie, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Pierre Friedlingstein

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Batiment 709, CE L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France
    QUEST, University of Bristol)

  • Chunzhen Liu

    (China Water Information Center (Hydrological Bureau), Lane 2 Baiguang Road)

  • Kun Tan

    (College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University)

  • Yongqiang Yu

    (State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Tianyi Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Jingyun Fang

    (College of Urban and Environmental Science, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, and Center of Climate Research, Peking University)

Abstract

China's growth factor China, since mid-2010 the world's second biggest economy and tipped to become the biggest in a few decades, has tremendous climatic and ecological diversity. The likely impact of China's economic expansion on the global climate has been extensively studied but little is known about the reverse case — the susceptibility of natural and managed systems in China to climate change. In a Review, Shilong Piao et al. assess the impacts of historical and future climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. They find that in spite of clear trends in climate (especially temperature), overall impacts are overshadowed by natural variability and uncertainties in crop responses and projected climate, especially precipitation. In a best-case scenario, crop production is constant, whereas the worst-case scenario suggests that production could fall by about 20% by 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:467:y:2010:i:7311:d:10.1038_nature09364
    DOI: 10.1038/nature09364
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