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Maize, wheat and rice production potential changes in China under the background of climate change

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  • Fei, Li
  • Meijun, Zhou
  • Jiaqi, Shao
  • Zehui, Chen
  • Xiaoli, Wei
  • Jiuchun, Yang

Abstract

China, as one of the largest food consumers in the world, is currently experiencing obvious impacts of climate change. Exploring the impact of climate change on the production potential of maize, wheat, and rice in China is of great significance in adapting to climate change and safeguarding global food security. In this study the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model and the Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition (ESMD) model were used to explore the trends in production potential of China's three major crops in the context of climate change from 1960 to 2010. There was a quasi-3-year and quasi-5-year cycle in changes in maize, wheat, and rice production potential due to climate change in China. Climate change increased maize and rice production potential and reduced wheat production potential. The increase in minimum temperature was the main reason for the increased maize and rice production potential. Reduced wheat production potential was mainly caused by increased maximum temperature. Decreases in precipitation had a substantial negative impact on the production potential of all three crops. These results suggest that priority should be given to adjusting the structure of agricultural cultivation and appropriately expanding the planting area of maize and rice to adapt to climate change. Accelerating the construction of agricultural infrastructure to reduce the negative impact of declining precipitation and increasing daytime temperature on agriculture is also a high priority in order to safeguard food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Fei, Li & Meijun, Zhou & Jiaqi, Shao & Zehui, Chen & Xiaoli, Wei & Jiuchun, Yang, 2020. "Maize, wheat and rice production potential changes in China under the background of climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:182:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19307395
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Akila Wijerathna-Yapa & Ranjith Pathirana, 2022. "Sustainable Agro-Food Systems for Addressing Climate Change and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-26, September.
    2. Qi Cui & Tariq Ali & Wei Xie & Jikun Huang & Jinxia Wang, 2022. "The uncertainty of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural economy based on an integrated assessment approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-22, March.
    3. De Yu & Shougeng Hu & Luyi Tong & Cong Xia, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Cultivated Land and Its Influences on Grain Production Potential in Hunan Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, December.

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