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Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification

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  • Tobias Sieg
  • Thomas Schinko
  • Kristin Vogel
  • Reinhard Mechler
  • Bruno Merz
  • Heidi Kreibich

Abstract

Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Sieg & Thomas Schinko & Kristin Vogel & Reinhard Mechler & Bruno Merz & Heidi Kreibich, 2019. "Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0212932
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212932
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E. E. Koks & M. Bočkarjova & H. de Moel & J. C. J. H. Aerts, 2015. "Integrated Direct and Indirect Flood Risk Modeling: Development and Sensitivity Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 882-900, May.
    2. Tina Gerl & Heidi Kreibich & Guillermo Franco & David Marechal & Kai Schröter, 2016. "A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Frans Klijn & Heidi Kreibich & Hans Moel & Edmund Penning-Rowsell, 2015. "Adaptive flood risk management planning based on a comprehensive flood risk conceptualisation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 845-864, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuik, Onno & Zhou, Fujin & Ciullo, Alessio & Brusselaers, Jan, 2022. "How vulnerable is Europe to severe climate-related natural disasters abroad? A dynamic CGE analysis of the international financial and economic impacts of a large hurricane in the southern USA," Conference papers 333438, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Kunze, Sven, 2020. "Unraveling the effects of tropical cyclones on economic sectors worldwide," Working Papers 0685, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Sven Kunze, 2021. "Unraveling the Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Economic Sectors Worldwide: Direct and Indirect Impacts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 545-569, April.
    4. Zhiqiang Yin & Yixin Hu & Katie Jenkins & Yi He & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Rachel Warren & Lili Yang & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Assessing the economic impacts of future fluvial flooding in six countries under climate change and socio-economic development," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-21, June.

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