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Insights into Flood Risk Misperceptions of Homeowners in the Dutch River Delta

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  • Jantsje M. Mol
  • W. J. Wouter Botzen
  • Julia E. Blasch
  • Hans de Moel

Abstract

Flooding is one of the most significant natural disasters worldwide. Nevertheless, voluntary take‐up of individual damage reduction measures is low. A potential explanation is that flood risk perceptions of individual homeowners are below objective estimates of flood risk, which may imply that they underestimate the flood risk and the damage that can be avoided by damage reduction measures. The aim of this article is to assess possible flood risk misperceptions of floodplain residents in the Netherlands, and to offer insights into factors that are related with under‐ or overestimation of perceived flood risk. We analyzed survey data of 1,848 homeowners in the Dutch river delta and examine how perceptions of flood probability and damage relate to objective risk assessments, such as safety standards of dikes, as well as heuristics, including the availability heuristic and the affect heuristic. Results show that many Dutch floodplain inhabitants significantly overestimate the probability, but underestimate the maximum expected water level of a flood. We further observe that many respondents apply the availability heuristic.

Suggested Citation

  • Jantsje M. Mol & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Julia E. Blasch & Hans de Moel, 2020. "Insights into Flood Risk Misperceptions of Homeowners in the Dutch River Delta," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1450-1468, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:40:y:2020:i:7:p:1450-1468
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Caloia & David-Jan Jansen & Kees van Ginkel, 2023. "Floods and financial stability: Scenario-based evidence from below sea level," Working Papers 796, DNB.
    2. Francesco Caloia & David-Jan Jansen, 2021. "Flood risk and financial stability: Evidence from a stress test for the Netherlands," Working Papers 730, DNB.
    3. Mutlu, Asli & Roy, Debraj & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. David-Jan Jansen, 2023. "Homeowners and flood risk: A disconnect between awareness and actions?," Working Papers 791, DNB.
    5. Joanna Nowak Da Costa & Beata Calka & Elzbieta Bielecka, 2021. "Urban Population Flood Impact Applied to a Warsaw Scenario," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.

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