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Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?

Author

Listed:
  • Ján Palguta

    (Department of Economics)

  • René Levínský

    (A joint workplace of Charles University in Prague and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
    Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes (BISOP))

  • Samuel Škoda

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

Elections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9–10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:35:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-021-00870-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Majerčák Jozef & Vakulenko Sergej Petrovich, 2023. "The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Population Mobility in the Czech Republic and Slovakia," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 158-168, January.
    2. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    3. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2022. "The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 963-988, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Election; COVID-19; Natural experiment; Event study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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