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Does holding elections during a Covid-19 pandemic put the lives of politicians at risk?

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Bach

    (ESSEC Business School)

  • Arthur Guillouzouic

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris)

  • Clément Malgouyres

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics)

Abstract

We estimate the impact of French town hall elections held in mid-March 2020 on the mortality of 163,000 male candidates aged above 60. Their excess mortality during March and April was similar to the general population. We compare candidates in cities with two candidate lists to those in cities with only one list, as elections are more intense in contacts in the former group. We also use a regression discontinuity design and investigate mortality in 2020 depending on how candidates fared in the 2014 election. We cannot detect any causal effect of active participation in the 2020 elections on mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Bach & Arthur Guillouzouic & Clément Malgouyres, 2021. "Does holding elections during a Covid-19 pandemic put the lives of politicians at risk?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03325832, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03325832
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102462
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03325832
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(4), pages 909-946, December.
    2. Borgschulte, Mark & Vogler, Jacob, 2019. "Run for your life? The effect of close elections on the life expectancy of politicians," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 18-32.
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    4. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    5. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    6. Bertoli, Simone & Guichard, Lucas & Marchetta, Francesca, 2020. "Turnout in the Municipal Elections of March 2020 and Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Epidemic in France," IZA Discussion Papers 13335, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Fenske, James & Wang, Shizhuo, 2023. "Tradition and mortality: Evidence from twin infanticide in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    9. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2020. "Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité... Contaminé? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France," Working Papers halshs-02877917, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    3. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    4. José Santana-Pereira & Hugo Ferrinho Lopes & Susana Rogeiro Nina, 2023. "Sailing Uncharted Waters with Old Boats? COVID-19 and the Digitalization and Professionalization of Presidential Campaigns in Portugal," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    5. Leromain, Elsa & Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague, 2022. "Voting under threat: Evidence from the 2020 French local elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2022. "The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 963-988, July.
    7. Wichmann, Bruno & Wichmann, Roberta, 2022. "COVID-19 and Indigenous health in the Brazilian Amazon," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    French elections; Electoral turnout; Municipal elections; Regression discontinuity design; Covid-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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