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Act Early to Prevent Infections and Save Lives: Causal Impact of Diagnostic Efficiency on the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Simiao
  • Jin, Zhangfeng
  • Vollmer, Sebastian
  • Bärnighausen, Till
  • David E. Bloom

Abstract

This paper examines the causal impact of diagnostic efficiency on the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Using an instrumental variable approach, we show that a 1-day decrease in the time taken to confirm the first case in a city publicly led to 9.4% and 12.7% reductions in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality over the subsequent six months, respectively. The impact was larger for cities that are farther from the COVID-19 epicenter, are exposed to less migration, have more responsive public health systems, and have higher-capacity utilization of health systems. Social distancing and a less burdened health system are likely underlying mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Simiao & Jin, Zhangfeng & Vollmer, Sebastian & Bärnighausen, Till & David E. Bloom, 2021. "Act Early to Prevent Infections and Save Lives: Causal Impact of Diagnostic Efficiency on the COVID-19 Pandemic," GLO Discussion Paper Series 931, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:931
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/240910/1/GLO-DP-0931.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Simiao & Prettner, Klaus & Kuhn, Michael & Bloom, David E., 2021. "The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diagnostic Efficiency; Information Disclosure; Social Distancing; COVID-19; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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