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JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread

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  • Mangrum, Daniel
  • Niekamp, Paul

Abstract

Due to the suspension of in-person classes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, students at universities with earlier spring breaks traveled and returned to campus while those with later spring breaks largely did not. We use variation in academic calendars to study how travel affected the evolution of COVID-19 cases and mortality. Estimates imply that counties with more early spring break students had a higher growth rate of cases than counties with fewer early spring break students. The increase in case growth rates peaked two weeks after spring break. Effects are larger for universities with students more likely to travel through airports, to New York City, and to popular Florida destinations. Consistent with secondary spread to more vulnerable populations, we find a delayed increase in mortality growth rates. Lastly, we present evidence that viral infection transmission due to college student travel also occurred prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Mangrum, Daniel & Niekamp, Paul, 2022. "JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0094119020300826
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2020.103311
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    2. Boto-García, David, 2023. "Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2023. "Sudden lockdown repeals, social mobility, and COVID‐19: Evidence from a judicial natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 272-304, June.
    4. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    5. Carlin, Patrick R. & Minard, Paul & Simon, Daniel H. & Wing, Coady, 2021. "Effects of large gatherings on the COVID-19 epidemic: Evidence from professional and college sports," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    6. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    7. Łukasz Mamica & Jakub Głowacki & Kamil Makieła, 2021. "Determinants of the Energy Poverty of Polish Students during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, June.
    8. Coven, Joshua & Gupta, Arpit & Yao, Iris, 2023. "JUE Insight: Urban flight seeded the COVID-19 pandemic across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Naoshi Doi & Shingo Yamazaki, 2025. "Externality and policy intervention in interregional travel with infectious diseases," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 68-84, January.
    10. Deng, Yongheng & Meng, Lina & Zhou, Yinggang, 2022. "The effectiveness and costs of nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 containment: A border discontinuous difference-in-difference approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2022. "Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1345-1384, October.
    12. Wan, Liyang & Wan, Qian, 2022. "High-speed railway and the intercity transmission of epidemics: Evidence from COVID-19 in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Higher education; Externalities; Spillovers; Mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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