IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/halshs-02895359.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Holding Elections during a Covid-19 Pandemic Put the Lives of Politicians at Risk?

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Bach

    (ESSEC Business School, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques)

  • Arthur Guillouzouic

    (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris)

  • Clément Malgouyres

    (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

We estimate the impact of French town hall elections held in mid-March 2020 on themortality of 163,000 male candidates aged above 60. Their excess mortality during Marchand April was similar to the general population. We compare candidates in cities withtwo candidate lists to those in cities with only one list, as elections are more intense incontacts in the former group. We also use a regression discontinuity design and investigatemortality in 2020 depending on how candidates fared in the 2014 election. We cannot detectany causal effect of active participation in the 2020 elections on mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Bach & Arthur Guillouzouic & Clément Malgouyres, 2021. "Does Holding Elections during a Covid-19 Pandemic Put the Lives of Politicians at Risk?," PSE Working Papers halshs-02895359, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-02895359
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02895359v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02895359v2/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(4), pages 909-946, December.
    2. Borgschulte, Mark & Vogler, Jacob, 2019. "Run for your life? The effect of close elections on the life expectancy of politicians," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 18-32.
    3. Chad Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik Nesson & Paul Niekamp, 2021. "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 760-777, October.
    4. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    5. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    6. Bertoli, Simone & Guichard, Lucas & Marchetta, Francesca, 2020. "Turnout in the Municipal Elections of March 2020 and Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Epidemic in France," IZA Discussion Papers 13335, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Fenske, James & Wang, Shizhuo, 2023. "Tradition and mortality: Evidence from twin infanticide in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    9. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2020. "Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité... Contaminé? Estimating the impact of French municipal elections on COVID-19 spread in France," Working Papers halshs-02877917, HAL.
    10. Matias Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik & Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2019. "Power calculations for regression-discontinuity designs," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(1), pages 210-245, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    3. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    4. José Santana-Pereira & Hugo Ferrinho Lopes & Susana Rogeiro Nina, 2023. "Sailing Uncharted Waters with Old Boats? COVID-19 and the Digitalization and Professionalization of Presidential Campaigns in Portugal," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    5. Leromain, Elsa & Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague, 2022. "Voting under threat: Evidence from the 2020 French local elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Guilhem Cassan & Marc Sangnier, 2022. "The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 963-988, July.
    7. Wichmann, Bruno & Wichmann, Roberta, 2022. "COVID-19 and Indigenous health in the Brazilian Amazon," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    2. Burgherr, David, 2022. "Behavioral Responses to a Pension Savings Mandate : Quasi-experimental Evidence from Swiss Tax Data," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 645, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Fernando Aragón & Ricardo Pique, 2020. "Better the devil you know? Reelected politicians and policy outcomes under no term limits," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(1), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Kresch, Evan Plous & Schneider, Rodrigo, 2020. "Political determinants of investment in water and sanitation: Evidence from Brazilian elections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Brachert, Matthias, 2018. "The regional effects of professional sports franchises: Causal evidence from four European football leagues," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Carozzi, Felipe & Cipullo, Davide & Repetto, Luca, 2024. "Powers that be? Political alignment, government formation, and government stability," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    7. Ariel Marek Pihl, 2018. "Head Start and Mothers' Work: Free Child Care or Something More?," Working Papers 18-13, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    8. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    9. Peter Ganong & Simon Jäger, 2018. "A Permutation Test for the Regression Kink Design," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 494-504, April.
    10. Berlinski, Samuel & Ramos, Alejandra, 2020. "Teacher mobility and merit pay: Evidence from a voluntary public award program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    11. Leandro de Magalhaes & Salomo Hirvonen, 2019. "The Incumbent-Challenger Advantage and the Winner-Runner-up Advantage," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/710, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    12. Kämpfen, F.; & Gómez-Olivé, X.; & O’Donnell, O.; & Riumallo Herl, C.;, 2023. "Effectiveness of Population-Based Hypertension Screening: A Multidimensional Regression Discontinuity Design," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 23/15, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    14. Bouke Klein Teeselink & Martijn J. van den Assem & Dennie van Dolder, 2023. "Does Losing Lead to Winning? An Empirical Analysis for Four Sports," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 513-532, January.
    15. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Salleo, Carmelo & Martín, Diego Vila, 2020. "How do banking groups react to macroprudential policies? Cross-border spillover effects of higher capital buffers on lending, risk-taking and internal markets," Working Paper Series 2497, European Central Bank.
    16. Angelo D'Andrea, 2019. "Mayor’s wage and Public procurement," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19125, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    17. Pihl, Ariel Marek, 2022. "Head Start and mothers’ work: Free child care or something more?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Vanessa Cirulli & Giuliano Resce & Marco Ventura, 2024. "Co-payment exemption and healthcare consumption: quasi-experimental evidence from Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 355-380, July.
    19. Suziedelyte, Agne & Zhu, Anna, 2021. "The intergenerational impact of reduced generosity in the social safety net," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 1-24.
    20. Marinho Bertanha & Guido W. Imbens, 2020. "External Validity in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 593-612, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 pandemic; French elections; individual-level data; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-02895359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.