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Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?

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  • Fischer Kai

    (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), University of Düsseldorf, Universitätsstrasse 1, 40225 Düsseldorf, Germany)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has decelerated substantial parts of economic and human interaction. This paper estimates football matches’ contribution to the spread of COVID-19 during Germany’s second infection wave in summer and autumn 2020. Exploiting the exogenous fixture schedules of matches across German counties in an event study design, we estimate that one additional match in a county on average raises daily cases by between 0.34 to 0.71 cases per 100,000 inhabitants after three weeks. Hence, this implies an increase of the seven-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants by around three to seven percent. We do not find qualitatively different results for a subsample of German top league matches with the strictest hygiene regulations or matches with higher occupancy levels. Notably, the found effect is mediated by the incidence level at the day of the match with very few infections for matches at a seven-day incidence below 25. Using mobile phone data, we identify strong increases in the local mobility as an underlying mechanism. We finally show that the ban of away fans successfully limited the spread of COVID-19 beyond county borders. Our results alert that even outdoor mass gatherings can remarkably cause infections.

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  • Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:23:y:2022:i:4:p:595-640:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0060
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    2. Jonas Dehning & Sebastian B. Mohr & Sebastian Contreras & Philipp Dönges & Emil N. Iftekhar & Oliver Schulz & Philip Bechtle & Viola Priesemann, 2023. "Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. J. James Reade, 2023. "Large Sporting Events and Public Health and Safety," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-04, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    4. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 503-523, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stadium Attendance; COVID-19 Pandemic; (Outdoor) Mass Gatherings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies

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