IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/germec/v23y2022i4p595-640n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?

Author

Listed:
  • Fischer Kai

    (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), University of Düsseldorf, Universitätsstrasse 1, 40225 Düsseldorf, Germany)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has decelerated substantial parts of economic and human interaction. This paper estimates football matches’ contribution to the spread of COVID-19 during Germany’s second infection wave in summer and autumn 2020. Exploiting the exogenous fixture schedules of matches across German counties in an event study design, we estimate that one additional match in a county on average raises daily cases by between 0.34 to 0.71 cases per 100,000 inhabitants after three weeks. Hence, this implies an increase of the seven-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants by around three to seven percent. We do not find qualitatively different results for a subsample of German top league matches with the strictest hygiene regulations or matches with higher occupancy levels. Notably, the found effect is mediated by the incidence level at the day of the match with very few infections for matches at a seven-day incidence below 25. Using mobile phone data, we identify strong increases in the local mobility as an underlying mechanism. We finally show that the ban of away fans successfully limited the spread of COVID-19 beyond county borders. Our results alert that even outdoor mass gatherings can remarkably cause infections.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:23:y:2022:i:4:p:595-640:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0060
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/ger-2021-0060?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ingo E. Isphording & Marc Lipfert & Nico Pestel, 2021. "Does Re-Opening Schools Contribute to the Spread of Sars-Cov-2? Evidence From Staggered Summer Breaks in Germany," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_263, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Charles Stoecker & Nicholas J. Sanders & Alan Barreca, 2016. "Success Is Something to Sneeze At: Influenza Mortality in Cities that Participate in the Super Bowl," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 2(1), pages 125-143, Winter.
    3. Mangrum, Daniel & Niekamp, Paul, 2022. "JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Evan DeFilippis & Stephen Michael Impink & Madison Singell & Jeffrey T. Polzer & Raffaella Sadun, 2020. "Collaborating During Coronavirus: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Nature of Work," NBER Working Papers 27612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2018. "Do Higher Corporate Taxes Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence from Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 393-418, February.
    6. Martin Lange & Ole Monscheuer, 2022. "Spreading the disease: Protest in times of pandemics," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(12), pages 2664-2679, December.
    7. Thiemo Fetzer & Thomas Graeber, 2021. "Measuring the scientific effectiveness of contact tracing: Evidence from a natural experiment," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(33), pages 2100814118-, August.
    8. Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(3), pages 769-807, January.
    9. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & Sabia, Joseph J. & Safford, Samuel, 2020. "Black Lives Matter Protests, Social Distancing, and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13388, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Thiemo Fetzer, 2022. "Subsidising the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’S Eat-Out-to-Help-Out Scheme," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1200-1217.
    11. Matthew Olczak & J. James Reade & Matthew Yeo, 2020. "Mass Outdoor Events and the Spread of a Virus: English Football and Covid-19," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-19, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    12. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    13. Mendolia, Silvia & Stavrunova, Olena & Yerokhin, Oleg, 2021. "Determinants of the community mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic: The role of government regulations and information," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 199-231.
    14. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    15. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2021. "Stadium attendance demand during the COVID-19 crisis: early empirical evidence from Belarus," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(18), pages 1542-1547, October.
    16. Chad Cotti & Bryan Engelhardt & Joshua Foster & Erik Nesson & Paul Niekamp, 2021. "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 760-777, October.
    17. Lichter, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Sommer, Eric, 2017. "Productivity effects of air pollution: Evidence from professional soccer," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 54-66.
    18. Krenz Astrid & Strulik Holger, 2021. "The benefits of remoteness – digital mobility data, regional road infrastructure, and COVID-19 infections," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 257-287, August.
    19. Isphording, Ingo E. & Lipfert, Marc & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Does re-opening schools contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2? Evidence from staggered summer breaks in Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    20. Carlin, Patrick R. & Minard, Paul & Simon, Daniel H. & Wing, Coady, 2021. "Effects of large gatherings on the COVID-19 epidemic: Evidence from professional and college sports," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    21. Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen, 2020. "Räumliche Ausbreitung von COVID-19 durch interregionale Verflechtungen [Spatial Interregional Spread of COVID-19 Through Commuter Interdependence]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 416-421, June.
    22. Charles Stoecker & Nicholas J. Sanders & Alan Barreca, 2016. "Success Is Something to Sneeze At: Influenza Mortality in Cities that Participate in the Super Bowl," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 2(1), pages 125-143, January.
    23. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2020. "Mass Gatherings Contributed to Early COVID-19 Mortality: Evidence from US Sports," Economics working papers 2020-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    24. Clara von Bismarck-Osten & Kirill Borusyak & Uta Schönberg, 2022. "The role of schools in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: quasi-experimental evidence from Germany," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 87-130.
    25. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Connor Redpath & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Risk Aversion, Offsetting Community Effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an Indoor Political Rally," NBER Working Papers 27522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Felbermayr Gabriel & Hinz Julian & Chowdhry Sonali, 2021. "Après-ski: The spread of coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 415-446, November.
    27. Sumedha Gupta & Thuy Nguyen & Shyam Raman & Byungkyu Lee & Felipe Lozano-Rojas & Ana Bento & Kosali Simon & Coady Wing, 2021. "Tracking Public and Private Responses to the COVID-19 Epidemic," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 361-404.
    28. Alexander Cardazzi & Brad Humphreys & Jane E. Ruseski & Brian P. Soebbing & Nicholas Watanabe, 2020. "Professional Sporting Events Increase Seasonal Influenza Mortality in US Cities," Working Papers 20-08, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    29. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Demand for Public Events in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of European Football," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-09, Department of Economics, University of Reading, revised 01 Oct 2020.
    30. Nina Haug & Lukas Geyrhofer & Alessandro Londei & Elma Dervic & Amélie Desvars-Larrive & Vittorio Loreto & Beate Pinior & Stefan Thurner & Peter Klimek, 2020. "Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1303-1312, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    2. J. James Reade, 2023. "Large Sporting Events and Public Health and Safety," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-04, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    3. Jonas Dehning & Sebastian B. Mohr & Sebastian Contreras & Philipp Dönges & Emil N. Iftekhar & Oliver Schulz & Philip Bechtle & Viola Priesemann, 2023. "Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 503-523, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. James Reade, 2023. "Large Sporting Events and Public Health and Safety," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-04, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    2. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 503-523, June.
    3. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    4. Carl Singleton & Alex Bryson & Peter Dolton & James Reade & Dominik Schreyer, 2022. "Economics lessons from sports during the COVID-19 pandemic," Chapters, in: Paul M. Pedersen (ed.), Research Handbook on Sport and COVID-19, chapter 2, pages 9-18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Hiroaki Funahashi & Shintaro Sato & Takuya Furukawa, 2022. "COVID-19 and Attendance Demand for Professional Sport in Japan: A Multilevel Analysis of Repeated Cross-Sectional National Data during the Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-10, April.
    6. Hiroaki Funahashi & Alexander Cardazzi & Nicholas Masafumi Watanabe, 2023. "Mass Gathering Sport Events and the Spread of Viral Respiratory Infection: Japanese Professional Baseball and Influenza," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 551-578, June.
    7. Matthew Olczak & J. James Reade & Matthew Yeo, 2020. "Mass Outdoor Events and the Spread of a Virus: English Football and Covid-19," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-19, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    8. Mangrum, Daniel & Niekamp, Paul, 2022. "JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2022. "Eliminating supportive crowds reduces referee bias," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1416-1436, July.
    10. Brad R. Humphreys & Gary A. Wagner & John C. Whitehead & Pamela Wicker, 2023. "Willingness to pay for policies to reduce health risks from COVID‐19: Evidence from U.S. professional sports," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 218-231, January.
    11. Carlin, Patrick R. & Minard, Paul & Simon, Daniel H. & Wing, Coady, 2021. "Effects of large gatherings on the COVID-19 epidemic: Evidence from professional and college sports," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    12. Ján Palguta & René Levínský & Samuel Škoda, 2022. "Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 197-240, January.
    13. Brad R. Humphreys & Gary A. Wagner & John C. Whitehead & Pamela Wicker, "undated". "Willingness to pay for COVID-19 environmental health risk reductions in consumption: Evidence from U.S. professional sports," Working Papers 21-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    14. Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2022. "Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1345-1384, October.
    15. Dhaval M. Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "Political Violence, Risk Aversion, and Non-Localized Disease Spread: Evidence from the U.S. Capitol Riot," NBER Working Papers 28410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Carl Singleton & Alex Bryson & Peter Dolton & J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer, 2021. "What Can We Learn About Economics from Sport during Covid-19?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    17. Mello, Marco & Moscelli, Giuseppe, 2022. "Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1025-1052.
    18. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Echoes: what happens when football is played behind closed doors?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-14, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    19. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    20. Markowitz, Sara & Nesson, Erik & Robinson, Joshua J., 2019. "The effects of employment on influenza rates," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 286-295.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stadium Attendance; COVID-19 Pandemic; (Outdoor) Mass Gatherings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:23:y:2022:i:4:p:595-640:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.