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Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?

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  • Karlyn Mitchell
  • Douglas Pearce

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  • Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas Pearce, 2010. "Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 196-217, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:196-217
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-009-9085-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Trehan, Bharat & Wu, Tao, 2007. "Time-varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1584-1609, May.
    3. Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2002. "Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Duffy, John & Engle-Warnick, Jim, 2006. "Multiple Regimes in U.S. Monetary Policy? A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1363-1377, August.
    5. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    6. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    7. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 5-33.
    8. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, June.
    9. Perez, Stephen J., 2001. "Looking back at forward-looking monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 509-521.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Who believes in the Taylor principle? Evidence from the Livingston survey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 96-98.
    3. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    4. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
    5. Sam Olofin & Olusanya Olubusoye & Afees A. Salisu & Alarudeen Aminu & Uwatt B. Uwatt & Micheal A. Adebiyi, 2017. "Revision of the small macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy," Working Papers 032, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    6. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Jia, Pengfei & Shen, Haopeng & Zheng, Shikun, 2023. "Monetary policy rules and opinionated markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    8. Jinill Kim & Seth Pruitt, 2017. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules When Nominal Interest Rates Are Stuck at Zero," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 585-602, June.
    9. Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters in Asian–Pacific countries believe in the monetary neutrality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 178-181.
    10. An, Zidong & Ball, Laurence & Jalles, Joao & Loungani, Prakash, 2019. "Do IMF forecasts respect Okun’s law? Evidence for advanced and developing economies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1131-1142.
    11. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Other publications TiSEM 4d696071-8776-4191-a84f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Ball, Laurence & Jalles, João Tovar & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Do forecasters believe in Okun’s Law? An assessment of unemployment and output forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 176-184.
    13. Oliver Hutengs & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Age Effects in the Okun's Law within the Eurozone," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1243, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Luz A. Flórez & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2018. "Okun´s law in Colombia: a non-linear cointegration," Borradores de Economia 1039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Casey, Eddie, 2020. "Do macroeconomic forecasters use macroeconomics to forecast?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1439-1453.
    16. Philip Hans Franses, 2020. "Correcting the January optimism effect," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 927-933, September.
    17. Leonardo Vera, 2017. "The Distribution of Power and the Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in the United States: A Post-Keynesian Approach," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 265-285, June.
    18. Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 317-324.
    19. Hutengs, Oliver & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Age effects in the Okun's law within the Eurozone," Discussion Papers 322, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    20. Olofin, S.O. & Salisu, A.A & Tule, M.K, 2020. "Revised Small Macro-Econometric Model Of The Nigerian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 97-116.
    21. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.
    22. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 605-630, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun’s Law; Taylor Rule; Forecasting; E32; E52; E58;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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