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Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Christoph Ruelke

    (Department of Economics - WHU - School of Manangement)

  • Ralf Fendel

    (Economics - WHU Koblenz - Otto Beisheim Graduate School of Managment)

  • Michael Frenkel

    (Economics - WHU Koblenz - Otto Beisheim Graduate School of Managment)

Abstract

This paper uses the monthly Wall Street Journal poll between 2002 and 2008 to analyze whether professional economic forecasters believe in and, thus, apply Taylor-type rules for their own forecasts. Using their forecasts for the Federal Funds rate, the in ation rate and capacity utilization, we estimate whether those are internally consistent with the message of Taylor(-type) rules. We find that the expectation formation can indeed be described by Taylor-type rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Christoph Ruelke & Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll," Post-Print hal-00743770, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00743770
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.613770
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00743770
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