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Residual analysis and parameter estimation of uncertain differential equations

Author

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  • Yang Liu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Baoding Liu

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

All existing methods to estimate unknown parameters in uncertain differential equations are based on difference scheme, and do not work when the time intervals between observations are not short enough. In order to overcome this shortage, this paper presents a concept of residual. Afterwards, an algorithm is designed for calculating residuals of uncertain differential equation corresponding to observed data. In addition, this paper presents a method of moments based on residuals to estimate the unknown parameters in uncertain differential equations. Finally, some examples (including Alibaba stock price) are provided to illustrate the parameter estimation method.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Liu & Baoding Liu, 2022. "Residual analysis and parameter estimation of uncertain differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 513-530, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fuzodm:v:21:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10700-021-09379-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10700-021-09379-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang, Xiangfeng & Ralescu, Dan A., 2015. "Adams method for solving uncertain differential equations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 270(C), pages 993-1003.
    2. Lifen Jia & Wei Chen, 2021. "Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 243-259, June.
    3. Xiaowei Chen & Jing Li & Chen Xiao & Peilin Yang, 2021. "Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 189-208, June.
    4. Waichon Lio & Baoding Liu, 2021. "Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-188, June.
    5. Gao, Rong, 2016. "Milne method for solving uncertain differential equations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 274(C), pages 774-785.
    6. Kai Yao & Baoding Liu, 2020. "Parameter estimation in uncertain differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Liu, Z., 2021. "Generalized moment estimation for uncertain differential equations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    8. Yang, Xiangfeng & Liu, Yuhan & Park, Gyei-Kark, 2020. "Parameter estimation of uncertain differential equation with application to financial market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Tang, Han & Yang, Xiangfeng, 2021. "Uncertain chemical reaction equation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    12. Noorani, Idin & Mehrdoust, Farshid, 2022. "Parameter estimation of uncertain differential equation by implementing an optimized artificial neural network," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1).
    13. Xiaoxia Huang & Xue Meng & Xiaozhu Xu, 2024. "Portfolio selection with second order uncertain dominance constraint," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 561-575, December.
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    16. Farshid Mehrdoust & Idin Noorani & Wei Xu, 2023. "Uncertain energy model for electricity and gas futures with application in spark-spread option price," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 123-148, March.

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