IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v139y2020ics0960077920304240.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Parameter estimation of uncertain differential equation with application to financial market

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Xiangfeng
  • Liu, Yuhan
  • Park, Gyei-Kark

Abstract

Uncertain differential equation (UDE) has been widely applied in the financial market, and many option pricing formulas are derived based on UDE. But the existing literature don’t consider the parameter estimation of UDE, and the parameters are just assumed as some given constants. This paper will present an approach to estimate the unknown parameter of UDE from discretely sampled data via α-path method for the first time. And the concepts of forecast value and confidence interval are introduced to predict the future value in a UDE. As five special UDEs, the parameters estimations of arithmetic Liu process, geometric Liu process, uncertain Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, uncertain mean-reverting process, and uncertain exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process are also derived, and the corresponding numerical examples are given. Furthermore, this paper proposes a means to estimate unknown parameters for the general geometric Liu process, and as an application, this method will be successfully used in Alibaba stock.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Xiangfeng & Liu, Yuhan & Park, Gyei-Kark, 2020. "Parameter estimation of uncertain differential equation with application to financial market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304240
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304240
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Xiangfeng & Ralescu, Dan A., 2015. "Adams method for solving uncertain differential equations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 270(C), pages 993-1003.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Rakshit, Biswambhar & Chowdhury, A. Roy & Saha, Papri, 2007. "Parameter estimation of a delay dynamical system using synchronization in presence of noise," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1278-1284.
    4. Tian, Miao & Yang, Xiangfeng & Zhang, Yi, 2019. "Barrier option pricing of mean-reverting stock model in uncertain environment," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 126-143.
    5. Lanruo Dai & Zongfei Fu & Zhiyong Huang, 2017. "Option pricing formulas for uncertain financial market based on the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 597-604, March.
    6. Zhang, Zhiqiang & Liu, Weiqi & Sheng, Yuhong, 2016. "Valuation of power option for uncertain financial market," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 286(C), pages 257-264.
    7. Wang, Xiao & Ning, Yufu & Moughal, Tauqir A. & Chen, Xiumei, 2015. "Adams–Simpson method for solving uncertain differential equation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 271(C), pages 209-219.
    8. Gao, Rong, 2016. "Milne method for solving uncertain differential equations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 274(C), pages 774-785.
    9. Yang, Xiangfeng & Zhang, Zhiqiang & Gao, Xin, 2019. "Asian-barrier option pricing formulas of uncertain financial market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 79-86.
    10. Banerjee, Amit & Abu-Mahfouz, Issam, 2014. "A comparative analysis of particle swarm optimization and differential evolution algorithms for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 65-83.
    11. Xiangfeng Yang & Kai Yao, 2017. "Uncertain partial differential equation with application to heat conduction," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 379-403, September.
    12. Zhang, Yi & Gao, Jinwu & Huang, Zhiyong, 2017. "Hamming method for solving uncertain differential equations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 331-341.
    13. Tian, Miao & Yang, Xiangfeng & Kar, Samarjit, 2019. "Equity warrants pricing problem of mean-reverting model in uncertain environment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 531(C).
    14. Jankunas, Andrius & Khasminskii, Rafail Z., 1997. "Estimation of parameters of linear homogeneous stochastic differential equations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 205-219, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jian Zhou & Yujiao Jiang & Athanasios A. Pantelous & Weiwen Dai, 2023. "A systematic review of uncertainty theory with the use of scientometrical method," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 463-518, September.
    2. Jia, Lifen & Chen, Wei, 2020. "Knock-in options of an uncertain stock model with floating interest rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Yang, Xiangfeng & Ralescu, Dan A., 2021. "A Dufort–Frankel scheme for one-dimensional uncertain heat equation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 98-112.
    4. Jia, Lifen & Lio, Waichon & Yang, Xiangfeng, 2018. "Numerical method for solving uncertain spring vibration equation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 428-441.
    5. Pan, Zeyu & Gao, Yin & Yuan, Lin, 2021. "Bermudan options pricing formulas in uncertain financial markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Liu, Z., 2021. "Generalized moment estimation for uncertain differential equations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    7. Lu, Jing & Yang, Xiangfeng & Tian, Miao, 2022. "Barrier swaption pricing formulae of mean-reverting model in uncertain environment," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    8. Kai Yao & Baoding Liu, 2020. "Parameter estimation in uncertain differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-12, March.
    9. Yang, Xiangfeng, 2018. "Solving uncertain heat equation via numerical method," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 329(C), pages 92-104.
    10. Jin, Ting & Yang, Xiangfeng, 2021. "Monotonicity theorem for the uncertain fractional differential equation and application to uncertain financial market," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 203-221.
    11. Zhang, Yi & Gao, Jinwu & Huang, Zhiyong, 2017. "Hamming method for solving uncertain differential equations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 331-341.
    12. Jin, Ting & Ding, Hui & Xia, Hongxuan & Bao, Jinfeng, 2021. "Reliability index and Asian barrier option pricing formulas of the uncertain fractional first-hitting time model with Caputo type," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Lifen Jia & Wei Chen, 2021. "Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 243-259, June.
    14. Liu, Z. & Yang, Y., 2021. "Selection of uncertain differential equations using cross validation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Lu, Ziqiang & Zhu, Yuanguo, 2019. "Numerical approach for solution to an uncertain fractional differential equation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 137-148.
    16. Liu, Z. & Yang, Y., 2021. "Uncertain pharmacokinetic model based on uncertain differential equation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    17. Gao, Yin & Jia, Lifen, 2021. "Pricing formulas of barrier-lookback option in uncertain financial markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Liu, Yang & Lio, Waichon, 2024. "Power option pricing problem of uncertain exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    19. Jin, Ting & Zhu, Yuanguo, 2020. "First hitting time about solution for an uncertain fractional differential equation and application to an uncertain risk index model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Gao, Rong & Hua, Kexin, 2023. "A numerical method for solving uncertain wave equation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.