IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/finsto/v16y2012i4p561-609.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Continuous-time trading and the emergence of probability

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Vovk

Abstract

This paper establishes a non-stochastic analog of the celebrated result by Dubins and Schwarz about reduction of continuous martingales to Brownian motion via time change. We consider an idealized financial security with continuous price paths, without making any stochastic assumptions. It is shown that typical price paths possess quadratic variation, where “typical” is understood in the following game-theoretic sense: there exists a trading strategy that earns infinite capital without risking more than one monetary unit if the process of quadratic variation does not exist. Replacing time by the quadratic variation process, we show that the price path becomes Brownian motion. This is essentially the same conclusion as in the Dubins–Schwarz result, except that the probabilities (constituting the Wiener measure) emerge instead of being postulated. We also give an elegant statement, inspired by Peter McCullagh’s unpublished work, of this result in terms of game-theoretic probability theory. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Vovk, 2012. "Continuous-time trading and the emergence of probability," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 561-609, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:16:y:2012:i:4:p:561-609
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-012-0180-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00780-012-0180-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00780-012-0180-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vladimir Vovk, 2010. "Rough paths in idealized financial markets," Papers 1005.0279, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    2. Horikoshi, Yasunori & Takemura, Akimichi, 2008. "Implications of contrarian and one-sided strategies for the fair-coin game," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 118(11), pages 2125-2142, November.
    3. Gianluca Cassese, 2008. "Asset Pricing With No Exogenous Probability Measure," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 23-54, January.
    4. Masayuki Kumon & Akimichi Takemura & Kei Takeuchi, 2005. "Capital process and optimality properties of a Bayesian Skeptic in coin-tossing games," Papers math/0510662, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2008.
    5. Jose Scheinkman & René Carmona & Erhan Cinlare & Ivar Ekeland & Elyès Jouini & Nizar Touzi, 2010. "Paris-Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance," Post-Print halshs-00706281, HAL.
    6. Alexander Cox & Jan Obłój, 2011. "Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 573-605, September.
    7. V. Vovk, 1993. "Forecasting point and continuous processes: Prequential analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 2(1), pages 189-217, December.
    8. Bick, Avi & Willinger, Walter, 1994. "Dynamic spanning without probabilities," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 349-374, April.
    9. Dawid, A. Philip & de Rooij, Steven & Shafer, Glenn & Shen, Alexander & Vereshchagin, Nikolai & Vovk, Vladimir, 2011. "Insuring against loss of evidence in game-theoretic probability," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 157-162, January.
    10. David G. Hobson, 1998. "Robust hedging of the lookback option," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 329-347.
    11. Mathias Beiglbock & Walter Schachermayer & Bezirgen Veliyev, 2010. "A Direct Proof of the Bichteler--Dellacherie Theorem and Connections to Arbitrage," Papers 1004.5559, arXiv.org.
    12. T. J. Lyons, 1995. "Uncertain volatility and the risk-free synthesis of derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133.
    13. Mark H. A. Davis & David G. Hobson, 2007. "The Range Of Traded Option Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-14, January.
    14. M. Avellaneda & A. Levy & A. ParAS, 1995. "Pricing and hedging derivative securities in markets with uncertain volatilities," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 73-88.
    15. Kumon, Masayuki & Takemura, Akimichi & Takeuchi, Kei, 2011. "Sequential optimizing strategy in multi-dimensional bounded forecasting games," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 155-183, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Łochowski, Rafał M. & Perkowski, Nicolas & Prömel, David J., 2018. "A superhedging approach to stochastic integration," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(12), pages 4078-4103.
    2. Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Promel, 2013. "Pathwise stochastic integrals for model free finance," Papers 1311.6187, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    3. Lesiba Ch. Galane & Rafa{l} M. {L}ochowski & Farai J. Mhlanga, 2017. "On the quadratic variation of the model-free price paths with jumps," Papers 1710.07894, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    4. Vladimir Vovk, 2016. "Another example of duality between game-theoretic and measure-theoretic probability," Papers 1608.02706, arXiv.org.
    5. Andrew L. Allan & Chong Liu & David J. Promel, 2021. "A C\`adl\`ag Rough Path Foundation for Robust Finance," Papers 2109.04225, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    6. Zhaoxu Hou & Jan Obłój, 2018. "Robust pricing–hedging dualities in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 511-567, July.
    7. Matteo Burzoni & Marco Maggis, 2019. "Arbitrage-free modeling under Knightian Uncertainty," Papers 1909.04602, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    8. Gianluca Cassese, 2017. "Asset pricing in an imperfect world," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(3), pages 539-570, October.
    9. Jan Obłój & Johannes Wiesel, 2021. "A unified framework for robust modelling of financial markets in discrete time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 427-468, July.
    10. Mathias Beiglböck & Alexander M. G. Cox & Martin Huesmann & Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Prömel, 2017. "Pathwise superreplication via Vovk’s outer measure," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1141-1166, October.
    11. Vladimir Vovk, 2015. "Purely pathwise probability-free Ito integral," Papers 1512.01698, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    12. Mathias Beiglbock & Alexander M. G. Cox & Martin Huesmann & Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Promel, 2015. "Pathwise super-replication via Vovk's outer measure," Papers 1504.03644, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    13. Christian Bender & Sebastian Ferrando & Alfredo Gonzalez, 2021. "Model-Free Finance and Non-Lattice Integration," Papers 2105.10623, arXiv.org.
    14. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & David J. Prömel & Ludovic Tangpi, 2019. "Duality for pathwise superhedging in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 697-728, July.
    15. Vladimir Vovk & Glenn Shafer, 2016. "A probability-free and continuous-time explanation of the equity premium and CAPM," Papers 1607.00830, arXiv.org.
    16. Rafa{l} M. {L}ochowski & Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Promel, 2021. "One-dimensional game-theoretic differential equations," Papers 2101.08041, arXiv.org.
    17. Patrick Cheridito & Matti Kiiski & David J. Promel & H. Mete Soner, 2019. "Martingale optimal transport duality," Papers 1904.04644, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    18. Vladimir Vovk & Glenn Shafer, 2017. "Towards a probability-free theory of continuous martingales," Papers 1703.08715, arXiv.org.
    19. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & Ariel Neufeld, 2017. "Pathwise superhedging on prediction sets," Papers 1711.02764, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    20. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & David J. Promel & Ludovic Tangpi, 2017. "Duality for pathwise superhedging in continuous time," Papers 1705.02933, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    21. Rafa{l} M. {L}ochowski, 2015. "Integration with respect to model-free price paths with jumps," Papers 1511.08194, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    22. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & Ariel Neufeld, 2020. "Pathwise superhedging on prediction sets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 215-248, January.
    23. Vladimir Vovk, 2017. "The role of measurability in game-theoretic probability," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 719-739, July.
    24. Lesiba Ch. Galane & Rafa{l} M. {L}ochowski & Farai J. Mhlanga, 2018. "On SDEs with Lipschitz coefficients, driven by continuous, model-free martingales," Papers 1807.05692, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    25. Vladimir Vovk, 2016. "Getting rich quick with the Axiom of Choice," Papers 1604.00596, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergey Nadtochiy & Jan Obłój, 2017. "Robust Trading Of Implied Skew," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-41, March.
    2. Sergey Nadtochiy & Jan Obloj, 2016. "Robust Trading of Implied Skew," Papers 1611.05518, arXiv.org.
    3. Zhaoxu Hou & Jan Obłój, 2018. "Robust pricing–hedging dualities in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 511-567, July.
    4. Matteo Burzoni & Marco Frittelli & Marco Maggis, 2016. "Universal arbitrage aggregator in discrete-time markets under uncertainty," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-50, January.
    5. Jan Obłój & Johannes Wiesel, 2021. "Distributionally robust portfolio maximization and marginal utility pricing in one period financial markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1454-1493, October.
    6. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Frank Thomas Seifried, 2016. "Hedging with Small Uncertainty Aversion," Papers 1605.06429, arXiv.org.
    7. Matteo Burzoni & Marco Frittelli & Marco Maggis, 2016. "Universal arbitrage aggregator in discrete-time markets under uncertainty," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-50, January.
    8. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2017. "Model uncertainty, recalibration, and the emergence of delta–vega hedging," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 873-930, October.
    9. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Marcel Nutz, 2018. "A risk-neutral equilibrium leading to uncertain volatility pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 281-295, April.
    10. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Frank Thomas Seifried, 2017. "Hedging with small uncertainty aversion," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-64, January.
    11. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2017. "Model Uncertainty, Recalibration, and the Emergence of Delta-Vega Hedging," Papers 1704.04524, arXiv.org.
    12. Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Marcel Nutz, 2016. "A Risk-Neutral Equilibrium Leading to Uncertain Volatility Pricing," Papers 1612.09152, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    13. Alexander M. G. Cox & Christoph Hoeggerl, 2013. "Model-independent no-arbitrage conditions on American put options," Papers 1301.5467, arXiv.org.
    14. Sergey Badikov & Mark H. A. Davis & Antoine Jacquier, 2018. "Perturbation analysis of sub/super hedging problems," Papers 1806.03543, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    15. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & David J. Prömel & Ludovic Tangpi, 2019. "Duality for pathwise superhedging in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 697-728, July.
    16. David Hobson & Anthony Neuberger, 2016. "On the value of being American," Papers 1604.02269, arXiv.org.
    17. Huy N. Chau, 2020. "On robust fundamental theorems of asset pricing in discrete time," Papers 2007.02553, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    18. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & Ariel Neufeld, 2020. "Pathwise superhedging on prediction sets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 215-248, January.
    19. Mathias Beiglbock & Alexander M. G. Cox & Martin Huesmann & Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Promel, 2015. "Pathwise super-replication via Vovk's outer measure," Papers 1504.03644, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    20. Mun-Chol Kim & Song-Chol Ryom, 2022. "Pathwise superhedging under proportional transaction costs," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 4, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Game-theoretic probability; Continuous time; Emergence of probability; Continuous price paths; Incomplete markets; 91G99; 60G17; 60G05; 60G44; C58; G13; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:16:y:2012:i:4:p:561-609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.