IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1711.02764.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pathwise superhedging on prediction sets

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Bartl
  • Michael Kupper
  • Ariel Neufeld

Abstract

In this paper we provide a pricing-hedging duality for the model-independent superhedging price with respect to a prediction set $\Xi\subseteq C[0,T]$, where the superhedging property needs to hold pathwise, but only for paths lying in $\Xi$. For any Borel measurable claim $\xi$ which is bounded from below, the superhedging price coincides with the supremum over all pricing functionals $\mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{Q}}[\xi]$ with respect to martingale measures $\mathbb{Q}$ concentrated on the prediction set $\Xi$. This allows to include beliefs in future paths of the price process expressed by the set $\Xi$, while eliminating all those which are seen as impossible. Moreover, we provide several examples to justify our setup.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & Ariel Neufeld, 2017. "Pathwise superhedging on prediction sets," Papers 1711.02764, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1711.02764
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.02764
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yan Dolinsky & Ariel Neufeld, 2015. "Super-replication in Fully Incomplete Markets," Papers 1508.05233, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    2. Vladimir Vovk, 2012. "Continuous-time trading and the emergence of probability," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 561-609, October.
    3. Ariel Neufeld, 2017. "Buy-and-Hold Property for Fully Incomplete Markets when Super-replicating Markovian Claims," Papers 1707.01178, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    4. Dylan Possamai & Guillaume Royer & Nizar Touzi, 2013. "On the Robust superhedging of measurable claims," Papers 1302.1850, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    5. Ariel Neufeld & Marcel Nutz, 2012. "Superreplication under Volatility Uncertainty for Measurable Claims," Papers 1208.6486, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    6. Zhaoxu Hou & Jan Obloj, 2015. "On robust pricing-hedging duality in continuous time," Papers 1503.02822, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.
    7. Karandikar, Rajeeva L., 1995. "On pathwise stochastic integration," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 11-18, May.
    8. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & David J. Promel & Ludovic Tangpi, 2017. "Duality for pathwise superhedging in continuous time," Papers 1705.02933, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    9. Patrick Cheridito & Michael Kupper & Ludovic Tangpi, 2016. "Duality formulas for robust pricing and hedging in discrete time," Papers 1602.06177, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    10. Matteo Burzoni & Marco Frittelli & Marco Maggis, 2014. "Universal Arbitrage Aggregator in Discrete Time Markets under Uncertainty," Papers 1407.0948, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    11. Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Promel, 2013. "Pathwise stochastic integrals for model free finance," Papers 1311.6187, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    12. David G. Hobson, 1998. "Robust hedging of the lookback option," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 329-347.
    13. Marcel Nutz & H. Mete Soner, 2010. "Superhedging and Dynamic Risk Measures under Volatility Uncertainty," Papers 1011.2958, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2012.
    14. Mathias Beiglböck & Alexander M. G. Cox & Martin Huesmann & Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Prömel, 2017. "Pathwise superreplication via Vovk’s outer measure," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1141-1166, October.
    15. B. Acciaio & M. Beiglböck & F. Penkner & W. Schachermayer, 2016. "A Model-Free Version Of The Fundamental Theorem Of Asset Pricing And The Super-Replication Theorem," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 233-251, April.
    16. T. J. Lyons, 1995. "Uncertain volatility and the risk-free synthesis of derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133.
    17. Neufeld, Ariel & Nutz, Marcel, 2014. "Measurability of semimartingale characteristics with respect to the probability law," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(11), pages 3819-3845.
    18. Vladimir Vovk, 2016. "Another example of duality between game-theoretic and measure-theoretic probability," Papers 1608.02706, arXiv.org.
    19. M. Avellaneda & A. Levy & A. ParAS, 1995. "Pricing and hedging derivative securities in markets with uncertain volatilities," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 73-88.
    20. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ariel Neufeld, 2018. "Buy-And-Hold Property For Fully Incomplete Markets When Super-Replicating Markovian Claims," Journal of Enterprising Culture (JEC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & Ariel Neufeld, 2020. "Pathwise superhedging on prediction sets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 215-248, January.
    2. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & David J. Prömel & Ludovic Tangpi, 2019. "Duality for pathwise superhedging in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 697-728, July.
    3. Daniel Bartl & Michael Kupper & David J. Promel & Ludovic Tangpi, 2017. "Duality for pathwise superhedging in continuous time," Papers 1705.02933, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    4. Zhaoxu Hou & Jan Obłój, 2018. "Robust pricing–hedging dualities in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 511-567, July.
    5. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Frank Thomas Seifried, 2016. "Hedging with Small Uncertainty Aversion," Papers 1605.06429, arXiv.org.
    6. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Frank Thomas Seifried, 2017. "Hedging with small uncertainty aversion," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-64, January.
    7. Mathias Beiglböck & Alexander M. G. Cox & Martin Huesmann & Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Prömel, 2017. "Pathwise superreplication via Vovk’s outer measure," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1141-1166, October.
    8. Ariel Neufeld & Antonis Papapantoleon & Qikun Xiang, 2023. "Model-Free Bounds for Multi-Asset Options Using Option-Implied Information and Their Exact Computation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2051-2068, April.
    9. Ariel Neufeld & Antonis Papapantoleon & Qikun Xiang, 2020. "Model-free bounds for multi-asset options using option-implied information and their exact computation," Papers 2006.14288, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    10. Julian Holzermann, 2020. "Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives under Volatility Uncertainty," Papers 2003.04606, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    11. Hölzermann, Julian, 2020. "Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives under Volatility Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 633, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    12. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2017. "Model uncertainty, recalibration, and the emergence of delta–vega hedging," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 873-930, October.
    13. Sebastian Herrmann & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2017. "Model Uncertainty, Recalibration, and the Emergence of Delta-Vega Hedging," Papers 1704.04524, arXiv.org.
    14. Łochowski, Rafał M. & Perkowski, Nicolas & Prömel, David J., 2018. "A superhedging approach to stochastic integration," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(12), pages 4078-4103.
    15. Dylan Possamai & Xiaolu Tan & Chao Zhou, 2015. "Stochastic control for a class of nonlinear kernels and applications," Papers 1510.08439, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    16. Nutz, Marcel, 2015. "Robust superhedging with jumps and diffusion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(12), pages 4543-4555.
    17. Ariel Neufeld, 2017. "Buy-and-Hold Property for Fully Incomplete Markets when Super-replicating Markovian Claims," Papers 1707.01178, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    18. Sergey Nadtochiy & Jan Obłój, 2017. "Robust Trading Of Implied Skew," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-41, March.
    19. Francesca Biagini & Yinglin Zhang, 2017. "Reduced-form framework under model uncertainty," Papers 1707.04475, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    20. Mathias Beiglbock & Alexander M. G. Cox & Martin Huesmann & Nicolas Perkowski & David J. Promel, 2015. "Pathwise super-replication via Vovk's outer measure," Papers 1504.03644, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1711.02764. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.