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Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?

Author

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  • Aktham Maghyereh

    (United Arab Emirates University)

  • Hussein Abdoh

    (The Citadel: The Military College of South Carolina)

Abstract

This study examines the role of market sentiment in predicting the price bubbles of four strategic metal commodities (gold, silver, palladium, and platinum) from January 1985 to August 2020. It is the first to investigate this topic using sentiment indices, including news-based economic and consumer-based sentiments developed using different methods. We observed the role of sentiment as a reliable indicator of future bubbles for some metal commodities and found that bubbles were regularly concomitant with bearish sentiments for gold and platinum. Moreover, gold and palladium were the only commodities that experienced a bubble during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, our findings suggest inclusion of sentiment to the model that predicts the price bubbles of precious metals.

Suggested Citation

  • Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:8:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-022-00341-w
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-022-00341-w
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    Keywords

    Asset price bubbles; Market sentiment; Precious metals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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