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Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.

Abstract

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants' expectations of future price changes on the other hand. It goes beyond past research by bringing to bear new data sources: survey data to measure expectations of future changes in commodity prices and options data to measure perceptions of risk. Some evidence is found of a negative effect of interest rates on the demand for inventories and thereby on commodity prices and positive effects of expected future price gains on inventory demand and thereby on today's commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2014. "Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:88-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carry trade; Commodity; Commodities; Real; Interest rate; Oil; Petroleum; Mineral; Volatility; Inventory; Inventories; Monetary; Spot price; Spread; Overshooting; Futures; Speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q39 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other

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