Can economic policy uncertainty and investors sentiment predict commodities returns and volatility?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.06.010
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Antoniou, Constantinos & Doukas, John A. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2013. "Cognitive Dissonance, Sentiment, and Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 245-275, February.
- Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
- Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2015. "Combining momentum with reversal in commodity futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 423-444.
- Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017.
"Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model,"
Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
- Christina Christou & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis, 2016. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Returns in Pacific-Rim Countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian Panel VAR Model," Working Papers 201661, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Lee Dunham & Geoffrey Friesen, 2007. "An Empirical Examination of Jump Risk in U.S. Equity And Bond Markets," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 76-91.
- Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018.
"Really Uncertain Business Cycles,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
- Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2012. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen Terry, 2013. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," CEP Discussion Papers dp1195, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Bloom, Nicholas & Floetotto, Max & Jaimovich, Nir & Saporta-Eksten, Itay & Terry, Stephen, 2013. "Really uncertain business cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012.
"Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
- Veronesi, Pietro & Pástor, Luboš, 2010. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2010. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 16128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pietro Veronesi & Lubos Pastor, 2011. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," 2011 Meeting Papers 86, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015.
"Measuring Uncertainty,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
- Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 19456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004.
"Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator,"
Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1977, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," NBER Working Papers 8816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Bing & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 39-42.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006.
"Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2014. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: does it matter for commodity prices?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 711-716, July.
- Sun, Licheng & Najand, Mohammad & Shen, Jiancheng, 2016. "Stock return predictability and investor sentiment: A high-frequency perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-164.
- Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
- Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
- Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017.
"Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
- Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2016. "Can Investor Sentiment Be a Momentum Time-Series Predictor? Evidence from China," RIEI Working Papers 2016-07, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Research Institute for Economic Integration, revised 12 Jan 2017.
- Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016.
"Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
- Naveed Raza & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Post-Print hal-02013747, HAL.
- Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Oil and gold price dynamics in a multivariate cointegration framework," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 453-468, September.
- Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "Speculative Influences On Commodity Futures Prices 2006-2008," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 197, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, "undated". "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai Leung Chong & Yingni She, 2014.
"A principal component approach to measuring investor sentiment in China,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 573-579, April.
- Chen, Haiqiang & Chong, Terence Tai Leung & She, Yingni, 2013. "A Principal Component Approach to Measuring Investor Sentiment in China," MPRA Paper 54150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016.
"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 15111, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 21633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp1379, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2015. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64986, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Davis, Steven & Bloom, Nicholas & Baker, Scott, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 10900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Changyun Wang, 2001.
"Investor Sentiment and Return Predictability in Agricultural Futures Markets,"
Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 929-952, October.
- Wang, Changyun, 2000. "Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets," MPRA Paper 36425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2002.
- Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014.
"Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
- Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm-Level Investment," MPRA Paper 51277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Imen Dakhlaoui & Chaker Aloui, 2016.
"The Interactive Relationship Between the US Economic Policy Uncertainty and BRIC Stock Markets,"
International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 141-157.
- Dakhlaoui, Imen & Aloui, Chaker, 2016. "The interactive relationship between the US economic policy uncertainty and BRIC stock markets," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 141-157.
- Naifar, Nader & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Do global financial distress and uncertainties impact GCC and global sukuk return dynamics?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 57-69.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004.
"Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Power and bipower variation with stochastic volatility and jumps," Economics Papers 2003-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
- Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2016. "Global financial crisis and spillover effects among the U.S. and BRICS stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-276.
- Reboredo, Juan C. & Wen, Xiaoqian, 2015. "Are China’s new energy stock prices driven by new energy policies?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 624-636.
- Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
- Reboredo, Juan C. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Do financial stress and policy uncertainty have an impact on the energy and metals markets? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-298.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
- Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011.
"Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets,"
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
- Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
- Bethke, Sebastian & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Kempf, Alexander, 2017. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 112-132.
- Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Huson Ali Ahmed & Seema Narayan, 2015. "Do Momentum‐Based Trading Strategies Work in the Commodity Futures Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(9), pages 868-891, September.
- Zhou, Yinggang, 2014. "Modeling the joint dynamics of risk-neutral stock index and bond yield volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 216-228.
- Jeong, Kiho & Härdle, Wolfgang K. & Song, Song, 2012. "A Consistent Nonparametric Test For Causality In Quantile," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 861-887, August.
- Nishiyama, Yoshihiko & Hitomi, Kohtaro & Kawasaki, Yoshinori & Jeong, Kiho, 2011. "A consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality—Specification in time series regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(1), pages 112-127.
- Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
- James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015.
"Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 187-205, February.
- James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
- Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2011. "Gold and the Dollar (and the Euro, Pound, and Yen)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2070-2083, August.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "Determining the predictive power between cryptocurrencies and real time commodity futures: Evidence from quantile causality tests," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 603-616.
- Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vinh Vo, Xuan, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and precious metals: A closer look from diversification perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
- Smimou, K. & Bosch, D. & Filbeck, G., 2024. "Commodities and Policy Uncertainty Channel(s)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 351-379.
- Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
- Reboredo, Juan C. & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Do financial stress and policy uncertainty have an impact on the energy and metals markets? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-298.
- Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
- Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
- Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
- Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Donald Lien, 2019. "Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 366-383, March.
- Zhuo Huang & Fang Liang & Chen Tong, 2021. "The predictive power of macroeconomic uncertainty for commodity futures volatility," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 989-1012, September.
- Bahloul, Walid & Balcilar, Mehmet & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2018.
"The role of economic and financial uncertainties in predicting commodity futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test,"
Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 52-71.
- Walid Bahloul & Mehmet Balcilar & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Role of Economic and Financial Uncertainties in Predicting Commodity Futures Returns and Volatility: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers 201725, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
- Johnson A. Oliyide & Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Muhammad A. Khan, 2021.
"Economic policy uncertainty and the volatility connectedness between oil shocks and metal market: An extension,"
International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 167, pages 136-150.
- Oliyide, Johnson A. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Khan, Muhammad A., 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and the volatility connectedness between oil shocks and metal market: An extension," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 136-150.
- Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
- Atri, Hanen & Kouki, Saoussen & Gallali, Mohamed imen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 news, panic and media coverage on the oil and gold prices: An ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
- Awasthi, Kritika & Ahmad, Wasim & Rahman, Abdul & Phani, B.V., 2020. "When US sneezes, clichés spread: How do the commodity index funds react then?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
- Mokni, Khaled & Al-Shboul, Mohammed & Assaf, Ata, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and dynamic spillover among precious metals under market conditions: Does COVID-19 have any effects?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Chin Chia Liang & Carol Troy & Ellen Rouyer, 2020. "The Stock Price Impact of Domestic and Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1747-1755.
- Batabyal, Sourav & Killins, Robert, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: Evidence from Canada," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
- Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023.
"Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
- Syed Ali Raza & Amna Masood & Ramzi Benkraiem & Christian Urom, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Post-Print hal-04080872, HAL.
More about this item
Keywords
Economic policy uncertainty; Investor sentiments; Commodities; Nonparametric causality;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:208-218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.