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Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options

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  • Kejun Jiang
  • Xiulian Hu

Abstract

Recent rapid growth of energy use in China now exerts great pressure on energy supply and the environment. This study provides scenarios of future energy development and resulting pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, taking into account the most up-to-date data and recent policy discussions that will affect future economic, industrial, and energy supply trends. To address uncertainties, especially those surrounding the level of energy-intensive production in the next several decades, three scenarios were defined, which reasonably represent the range of plausible futures for energy development. The results from quantitative analysis show that energy demand in China could be as high as 2.9 billion toe (tons oil equivalent) in 2030, which could exceed the available energy supply. When compared with previous energy scenario studies, this result is much higher. By using various policy options discussed in the article, however, there is potential to reduce this high demand to 2.4 billion toe in 2030. Copyright Springer Japan 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Kejun Jiang & Xiulian Hu, 2006. "Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 233-250, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:7:y:2006:i:3:p:233-250
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03354001
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    1. Kejun Jiang & Toshihiko Masui & Tsuneyuki Morita & Yuzuru Matsuoka, 1999. "Long-term emission scenarios for China," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 2(4), pages 267-287, December.
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    2. Kejun Jiang & Sha Chen & Chenmin He & Jia Liu & Sun Kuo & Li Hong & Songli Zhu & Xiang Pianpian, 2019. "Energy transition, CO2 mitigation, and air pollutant emission reduction: scenario analysis from IPAC model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1277-1293, December.
    3. Wang, Chunyan & Li, Yaqing & Liu, Yi, 2018. "Investigation of water-energy-emission nexus of air pollution control of the coal-fired power industry: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 291-301.
    4. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2008. "Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 229-247, May.
    5. Yu, Fanxian & Chen, Jining & Sun, Fu & Zeng, Siyu & Wang, Can, 2011. "Trend of technology innovation in China's coal-fired electricity industry under resource and environmental constraints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1586-1599, March.
    6. Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Shen, Chao & Ding, Shuai & Sun, Chaoping, 2015. "Energy conservation and emission reduction of China’s electric power industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 10-19.
    7. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 444-455.
    8. Ke, Jing & Zheng, Nina & Fridley, David & Price, Lynn & Zhou, Nan, 2012. "Potential energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction of China's cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 739-751.
    9. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2006. "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Offsetting Kyoto - and Then Some," CUDARE Working Papers 7197, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    10. Abomohra, Abd El-Fatah & Sheikh, Huda M.A. & El-Naggar, Amal H. & Wang, Qingyuan, 2021. "Microwave vacuum co-pyrolysis of waste plastic and seaweeds for enhanced crude bio-oil recovery: Experimental and feasibility study towards industrialization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Li, Jun, 2008. "Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector--A review of energy and climate models forecast," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1736-1747, May.
    12. You, Jing, 2013. "China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 652-668.
    13. Du, Limin & Wei, Chu & Cai, Shenghua, 2012. "Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 371-384.
    14. Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Kriegler, Elmar & Haller, Markus & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "Asia's role in mitigating climate change: A technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 378-390.
    15. Shrestha, Ram M. & Malla, Sunil & Liyanage, Migara H., 2007. "Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3179-3193, June.
    16. Wang, Shaojian & Fang, Chuanglin & Guan, Xingliang & Pang, Bo & Ma, Haitao, 2014. "Urbanisation, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in China: A panel data analysis of China’s provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 738-749.

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