IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v36y2008i5p1736-1747.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector--A review of energy and climate models forecast

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jun

Abstract

This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100-300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600-700 million metric tons of CO2 emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO2 emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jun, 2008. "Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector--A review of energy and climate models forecast," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1736-1747, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:5:p:1736-1747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(08)00031-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crompton, Paul & Wu, Yanrui, 2005. "Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-208, January.
    2. Urge-Vorsatz, Diana & Novikova, Aleksandra, 2008. "Potentials and costs of carbon dioxide mitigation in the world's buildings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 642-661, February.
    3. Kejun Jiang & Xiulian Hu, 2006. "Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 233-250, September.
    4. Xuedu Lu & Jiahua Pan & Ying Chen, 2006. "Sustaining Economic Growth in China under Energy and Climate Security Constraints," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(6), pages 85-97, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Guoqing & Zheng, Yun & Wu, Yong & Cui, Zhenhua & Qian, Kuangliang, 2015. "Promotion of building-integrated solar water heaters in urbanized areas in China: Experience, potential, and recommendations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 643-656.
    2. Li, Jun & Colombier, Michel & Giraud, Pierre-Noël, 2009. "Decision on optimal building energy efficiency standard in China--The case for Tianjin," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2546-2559, July.
    3. Li, Meng & Zhao, Jing & Zhu, Neng, 2013. "Method of checking and certifying carbon trading volume of existing buildings retrofits in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1178-1187.
    4. Li, Jun, 2009. "Scaling up concentrating solar thermal technology in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 2051-2060, October.
    5. Geng, Shengnan & Wang, Yuan & Zuo, Jian & Zhou, Zhihua & Du, Huibin & Mao, Guozhu, 2017. "Building life cycle assessment research: A review by bibliometric analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 176-184.
    6. Xu, Guangyue & Wang, Weimin, 2020. "China’s energy consumption in construction and building sectors: An outlook to 2100," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Coaffee, Jon, 2008. "Risk, resilience, and environmentally sustainable cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4633-4638, December.
    8. Baek, Seoin & Park, Eunil & Kim, Min-Gil & Kwon, Sang Jib & Kim, Ki Joon & Ohm, Jay Y. & del Pobil, Angel P., 2016. "Optimal renewable power generation systems for Busan metropolitan city in South Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 517-525.
    9. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Yamaguchi, Yohei & Iwafune, Yumiko & Hidaka, Kazuyoshi & Meier, Alan & Yagita, Yoshie & Kawamoto, Hisaki & Nishikiori, Soichi, 2020. "Energy demand science for a decarbonized society in the context of the residential sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana & Tirado Herrero, Sergio, 2012. "Building synergies between climate change mitigation and energy poverty alleviation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 83-90.
    11. Gambhir, Ajay & Schulz, Niels & Napp, Tamaryn & Tong, Danlu & Munuera, Luis & Faist, Mark & Riahi, Keywan, 2013. "A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 614-632.
    12. Wang, Chen & Engels, Anita & Wang, Zhaohua, 2018. "Overview of research on China's transition to low-carbon development: The role of cities, technologies, industries and the energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1350-1364.
    13. Hong, Lixuan & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Möller, Bernd, 2013. "2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 267-278.
    14. Bilgen, S., 2014. "Structure and environmental impact of global energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 890-902.
    15. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    16. Gong, Mei & Werner, Sven, 2015. "An assessment of district heating research in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 97-105.
    17. Yu, Sisi & Liu, Yanfeng & Wang, Dengjia & Bahaj, AbuBakr S. & Wu, Yue & Liu, Jiaping, 2021. "Review of thermal and environmental performance of prefabricated buildings: Implications to emission reductions in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    19. Yang, Xinyan & Zhang, Shicong & Xu, Wei, 2019. "Impact of zero energy buildings on medium-to-long term building energy consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 574-586.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Shen, Chao & Ding, Shuai & Sun, Chaoping, 2015. "Energy conservation and emission reduction of China’s electric power industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 10-19.
    2. You, Jing, 2013. "China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 652-668.
    3. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    4. Ren, Siyu & Hao, Yu & Xu, Lu & Wu, Haitao & Ba, Ning, 2021. "Digitalization and energy: How does internet development affect China's energy consumption?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Zheng, Yingmei & Qi, Jianhong & Chen, Xiaoliang, 2011. "The effect of increasing exports on industrial energy intensity in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2688-2698, May.
    6. Wang, Chengjin & Ducruet, César, 2014. "Transport corridors and regional balance in China: the case of coal trade and logistics," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 3-16.
    7. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Do we really understand the development of China's new energy industry?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 733-745.
    8. Wei Yu & Baizhan Li & Yarong Lei & Meng Liu, 2011. "Analysis of a Residential Building Energy Consumption Demand Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-13, March.
    9. Kejun Jiang & Sha Chen & Chenmin He & Jia Liu & Sun Kuo & Li Hong & Songli Zhu & Xiang Pianpian, 2019. "Energy transition, CO2 mitigation, and air pollutant emission reduction: scenario analysis from IPAC model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1277-1293, December.
    10. Hong, Junjie & Shi, Fangyuan & Zheng, Yuhan, 2023. "Does network infrastructure construction reduce energy intensity? Based on the “Broadband China” strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    11. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Marvão Pereira, Alfredo & Marvão Pereira, Rui Manuel, 2010. "Is fuel-switching a no-regrets environmental policy? VAR evidence on carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic performance in Portugal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 227-242, January.
    13. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Carson, Richard T., 2006. "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Offsetting Kyoto - and Then Some," CUDARE Working Papers 7197, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    14. Malayan, Firoz & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Causal linkages between the energy sector and islamic regional indexes: evidence from GCC, EU, US, emerging markets and Asia-pacific," MPRA Paper 100681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Xu, Yang-Jie & Li, Guo-Xiu & Sun, Zuo-Yu, 2016. "Development of biodiesel industry in China: Upon the terms of production and consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 318-330.
    16. Kim, Hyun Seok & Baek, Jungho, 2013. "Assessing dynamics of crude oil import demand in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 260-263.
    17. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Barslund, Mikkel & Hansen, Casper Worm & Harr, Thomas & Jensen, Peter Sandholt, 2014. "How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-26.
    18. Chang, Tzu-Pu & Hu, Jin-Li, 2010. "Total-factor energy productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change: An empirical study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3262-3270, October.
    19. Li, Sisi & Khan, Sufyan Ullah & Yao, Yao & Chen, George S. & Zhang, Lin & Salim, Ruhul & Huo, Jiaying, 2022. "Estimating the long-run crude oil demand function of China: Some new evidence and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    20. Wang, Yong & Xiang, Erwei & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong) & Ruan, Wenjuan & Hu, Wei, 2017. "International oil price uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China's emerging and transition economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 330-339.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:5:p:1736-1747. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.