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Long-term emission scenarios for China

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  • Kejun Jiang
  • Toshihiko Masui
  • Tsuneyuki Morita
  • Yuzuru Matsuoka

Abstract

In order to formulate policies in response to climate change, it is essential to forecast future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the long term. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed the IS92 emission scenarios in 1992, which have contributed to climate change studies and negotiation activities. Most of these scenarios were developed by research teams in developed countries, and some experts from developing countries have argued that the scenarios did not sufficiently consider the viewpoint of the developing countries. In this paper, we present our study on long-term non-policy emission scenarios for China. This study examines China’s socioeconomic development and energy activities in greater detail. The AIM/emission linkage model was developed for analysis. Seven emission scenarios were derived for China, covering six major gases from energy activities and land use changes. The results show that GHG emissions in China will increase until 2030 accompanying the country’s economic development. However, it is possible for China to maintain low GHG emissions while achieving rapid economic development. Copyright Springer Japan 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Kejun Jiang & Toshihiko Masui & Tsuneyuki Morita & Yuzuru Matsuoka, 1999. "Long-term emission scenarios for China," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 2(4), pages 267-287, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:2:y:1999:i:4:p:267-287
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03353915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kejun Jiang & Xiulian Hu, 2006. "Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 233-250, September.
    2. van Vuuren, Detlef & Fengqi, Zhou & Vries, Bert de & Kejun, Jiang & Graveland, Cor & Yun, Li, 2003. "Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century--exploration of baseline development and mitigation options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 369-387, March.
    3. Du, Limin & Wei, Chu & Cai, Shenghua, 2012. "Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 371-384.
    4. Shrestha, Ram M. & Malla, Sunil & Liyanage, Migara H., 2007. "Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3179-3193, June.

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