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Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis

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  • Du, Limin
  • Wei, Chu
  • Cai, Shenghua

Abstract

This paper investigates the driving forces, emission trends and reduction potential of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions based on a provincial panel data set covering the years 1995 to 2009. A series of static and dynamic panel data models are estimated, and then an optimal forecasting model selected by out-of-sample criteria is used to forecast the emission trend and reduction potential up to 2020. The estimation results show that economic development, technology progress and industry structure are the most important factors affecting China's CO2 emissions, while the impacts of energy consumption structure, trade openness and urbanization level are negligible. The inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and economic development level is not strongly supported by the estimation results. The impact of capital adjustment speed is significant. Scenario simulations further show that per capita and aggregate CO2 emissions of China will increase continuously up to 2020 under any of the three scenarios developed in this study, but the reduction potential is large.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Limin & Wei, Chu & Cai, Shenghua, 2012. "Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 371-384.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:371-384
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2012.02.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; Panel data models; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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