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Midterm change in rainfall distribution in north and central Benin: implications for agricultural decision making

Author

Listed:
  • Moudjahid Akorédé Wabi

    (Ghent University
    Université d’Abomey-Calavi)

  • Wouter Vanhove

    (Ghent University)

  • Rodrigue Idohou

    (Université d’Abomey-Calavi
    Université Nationale d’Agriculture)

  • Achille Hounkpèvi

    (Université d’Abomey-Calavi)

  • Romain Lucas Glèlè Kakaï

    (Université d’Abomey-Calavi)

  • Patrick Damme

    (Ghent University
    Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague)

Abstract

A better understanding of rainfall variability and trends is vital for agricultural production systems which are largely dependent on climate. This study aims to analyze and to quantify the significance of change on annual, seasonal and daily rainfall in North and Central Benin, and to infer future challenges for crop production. Daily rainfall data for the 1970–2016 period measured at three weather stations (Savè, Malanville and Tanguiéta) were obtained from the Benin National Weather Agency. Descriptive statistics, standardized anomaly of rainfall (SAR) and rainfall intensity were used to analyze rainfall variability. For rainfall trends analysis, we tested for auto-correlation and used the Mann–Kendall and modified Mann–Kendall tests for non-auto-correlated and auto-correlated data, respectively. Trend magnitude was estimated using Sen’s slope. Globally, a moderate-to-high seasonal rainfall and low variability of yearly rainfall were observed. The SAR indicated more than 50% of the years in the studies period experienced dry years. Between 1970 and 2016, a significant 20% increase was observed in the yearly rainfall in Tanguiéta, whereas no significant trends were observed in Malanville (10% increase) and Savè (0.6% decrease). The general rainfall increase observed during the post-monsoon season (October–November) in the three weather stations potentially increases flood frequencies during the harvest period of some crops, which can reduce crop yields. Adaptation strategies are needed which can mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture. These findings are essential to the climate risk management in agriculture and to target appropriate adaptive measures for resilience building in the sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Moudjahid Akorédé Wabi & Wouter Vanhove & Rodrigue Idohou & Achille Hounkpèvi & Romain Lucas Glèlè Kakaï & Patrick Damme, 2024. "Midterm change in rainfall distribution in north and central Benin: implications for agricultural decision making," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 27431-27456, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03766-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03766-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yves Yao Soglo & Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide, 2019. "Climate change perceptions and responsive strategies in Benin: the case of maize farmers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 245-256, July.
    2. Charles Onyutha, 2018. "African crop production trends are insufficient to guarantee food security in the sub-Saharan region by 2050 owing to persistent poverty," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(5), pages 1203-1219, October.
    3. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
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