IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v31y2017i4d10.1007_s11269-017-1583-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Stojković

    (Institute for Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi”)

  • Srđan Kostić

    (Institute for Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi”)

  • Stevan Prohaska

    (Institute for Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi”)

  • Jasna Plavšić

    (University of Belgrade Faculty of Civil Engineering)

  • Vesna Tripković

    (Institute for Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi”)

Abstract

The authors propose a new approach for trend assessment that takes into account long-term periodicity of annual flows. In particular, analysis is performed of annual flows recorded at the locations of 30 operating and designed hydropower plants (HPPs) in Serbia, in order to assess the current and future water availability for hydropower generation. The composite annual trend is determined by sliding a fixed time window of 30 years along the observed time series with a one-year time step. Such a linear moving window (LMW) approach enables the identification of the flow trend as a median of all values for each time step. Significant trend harmonics are determined using discrete spectral analysis. The results show an alternation of upward and downward trend phases of different durations, namely: 67–87, 33–43 and 21–29 years. On the other hand, the results of the Mann-Kendall test indicate a monotonic downward trend at the studied sites in the Drina River Basin, while statistically insignificant trends are noted at other river basins. The Mann-Kendall test with the Theil-Sen estimator also implies a downward and statistically insignificant flow trend after the observed period, whereas the LMW approach indicates a probable trend increase at all the examined sites. The proposed approach can be used to predict annual flows in order to establish long-term water management plans at hydropower plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Stojković & Srđan Kostić & Stevan Prohaska & Jasna Plavšić & Vesna Tripković, 2017. "A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1089-1103, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1583-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yan-Fang Sang, 2013. "Improved Wavelet Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2807-2821, June.
    2. Milan Stojković & Aleksandra Ilić & Stevan Prohaska & Jasna Plavšić, 2014. "Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4319-4335, September.
    3. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    4. Kao, Shih-Chieh & Sale, Michael J. & Ashfaq, Moetasim & Uria Martinez, Rocio & Kaiser, Dale P. & Wei, Yaxing & Diffenbaugh, Noah S., 2015. "Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 239-250.
    5. Qiang Zhang & Ben-De Wang & Bin He & Yong Peng & Ming-Lei Ren, 2011. "Singular Spectrum Analysis and ARIMA Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(11), pages 2683-2703, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kostić, Srđan & Stojković, Milan & Guranov, Iva & Vasović, Nebojša, 2019. "Revealing the background of groundwater level dynamics: Contributing factors, complex modeling and engineering applications," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 408-421.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miao Fang & Xin Li & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen, 2022. "Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    3. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    5. Nnodu Ifeanyi Daniel & Magaji Joshua Ibrahim, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Variations of Rainfall Over Nigeria from 1971 to 2020," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(7), pages 1374-1390, July.
    6. Xue-hua Zhao & Xu Chen, 2015. "Auto Regressive and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2913-2926, June.
    7. Schaefli, Bettina & Manso, Pedro & Fischer, Mauro & Huss, Matthias & Farinotti, Daniel, 2017. "The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production," Earth Arxiv 7z96d, Center for Open Science.
    8. Hüseyin Yavuz & Saffet Erdoğan, 2012. "Spatial Analysis of Monthly and Annual Precipitation Trends in Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(3), pages 609-621, February.
    9. Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani, 2016. "Investigating Chaos and Nonlinear Forecasting in Short Term and Mid-term River Discharge," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1851-1865, March.
    10. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    11. Wan-Jiun Chen, 2017. "Is the Green Solow Model Valid for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions in the European Union?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 23-45, May.
    12. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    13. Y. Liu & B. Wang & H. Zhan & Y. Fan & Y. Zha & Y. Hao, 2017. "Simulation of Nonstationary Spring Discharge Using Time Series Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(15), pages 4875-4890, December.
    14. Roquia Salam & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Shakibul Islam, 2020. "Spatiotemporal distribution and prediction of groundwater level linked to ENSO teleconnection indices in the northwestern region of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 4509-4535, June.
    15. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    16. Suleman Sarwar & Ghazala Aziz & Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente, 2023. "Forecasting Accuracy of Traditional Regression, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning: A Study of Environmental Emissions in Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Myoung-Jin Um & Jun-Haeng Heo & Momcilo Markus & Donald J. Wuebbles, 2018. "Performance Evaluation of four Statistical Tests for Trend and Non-stationarity and Assessment of Observed and Projected Annual Maximum Precipitation Series in Major United States Cities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 913-933, February.
    18. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    19. Ayllón, Daniel & Railsback, Steven F. & Vincenzi, Simone & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Almodóvar, Ana & Grimm, Volker, 2016. "InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 36-53.
    20. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1583-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.