IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v10y2018i5d10.1007_s12571-018-0839-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

African crop production trends are insufficient to guarantee food security in the sub-Saharan region by 2050 owing to persistent poverty

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Onyutha

    (Muni University)

Abstract

To meet the future food demand, supply should be increased. Crop production in Africa is projected to increase in the future. However, can the crop production trends guarantee future food security? For illustrative analyses, cereal was used on the assumption, following a recent study, that the changes in its production are representative of those for other major food crops. For 50 African countries, trends and variability in cereal production, yield, and area harvested from 1961 to 2014 as well as the ratio of production to population (RPP) were analyzed by testing the null hypothesis H0 (no trend) and H0 (natural randomness) at α = 0.05. For negative (positive) trends in production, yield, area harvested, and RPP, respectively, H0 (no trend) was rejected (p

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Onyutha, 2018. "African crop production trends are insufficient to guarantee food security in the sub-Saharan region by 2050 owing to persistent poverty," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(5), pages 1203-1219, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:10:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s12571-018-0839-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-018-0839-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-018-0839-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12571-018-0839-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keijiro Otsuka & Takashi Yamano, 2006. "Introduction to the special issue on the role of nonfarm income in poverty reduction: evidence from Asia and East Africa," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(s3), pages 393-397, November.
    2. Smale, Melinda & Byerlee, Derek & Jayne, Thom, 2011. "Maize revolutions in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5659, The World Bank.
    3. Ulrike Rippke & Julian Ramirez-Villegas & Andy Jarvis & Sonja J. Vermeulen & Louis Parker & Flora Mer & Bernd Diekkrüger & Andrew J. Challinor & Mark Howden, 2016. "Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 605-609, June.
    4. Thornton, Philip K. & Jones, Peter G. & Owiyo, Tom & Kruska, Russell L. & Herrero, Mario & Orindi, Victor & Bhadwal, Suruchi & Kristjanson, Patricia & Notenbaert, An & Bekele, Nigat & Omolo, Abisalom, 2008. "Climate change and poverty in Africa: Mapping hotspots of vulnerability," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Patti Kristjanson & Nelson Mango & Anirudh Krishna & Maren Radeny & Nancy Johnson, 2010. "Understanding poverty dynamics in Kenya," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 978-996.
    6. Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Deininger, Klaus, 2014. "Is there a farm-size productivity relationship in African agriculture ? evidence from Rwanda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6770, The World Bank.
    7. Leslie Lipper & Philip Thornton & Bruce M. Campbell & Tobias Baedeker & Ademola Braimoh & Martin Bwalya & Patrick Caron & Andrea Cattaneo & Dennis Garrity & Kevin Henry & Ryan Hottle & Louise Jackson , 2014. "Climate-smart agriculture for food security," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1068-1072, December.
    8. Patricio Grassini & Kent M. Eskridge & Kenneth G. Cassman, 2013. "Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Thomas W. Hertel & Stephanie D. Rosch, 2010. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 355-385.
    10. A. J. Challinor & A.-K. Koehler & J. Ramirez-Villegas & S. Whitfield & B. Das, 2016. "Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 954-958, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    2. Marcin Pawel Jarzebski & Abubakari Ahmed & Yaw Agyeman Boafo & Boubacar Siddighi Balde & Linda Chinangwa & Osamu Saito & Graham Maltitz & Alexandros Gasparatos, 2020. "Food security impacts of industrial crop production in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of the impact mechanisms," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(1), pages 105-135, February.
    3. Ibrahim Wahab & Magnus Jirström & Ola Hall, 2020. "An Integrated Approach to Unravelling Smallholder Yield Levels: The Case of Small Family Farms, Eastern Region, Ghana," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-27, June.
    4. Ebunoluwa O. Ajagun & George Ashiagbor & Winston A. Asante & Benjamin A. Gyampoh & Kwasi A. Obirikorang & Emmanuel Acheampong, 2022. "Cocoa eats the food: expansion of cocoa into food croplands in the Juabeso District, Ghana," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(2), pages 451-470, April.
    5. Mulwa, Chalmers K. & Visser, Martine, 2020. "Farm diversification as an adaptation strategy to climatic shocks and implications for food security in northern Namibia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Tomas Linder, 2019. "Making the case for edible microorganisms as an integral part of a more sustainable and resilient food production system," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(2), pages 265-278, April.
    7. Sam, Abdoul G. & Abidoye, Babatunde & Mashaba, Sihle, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106700, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Kenneth W. Sibiko & Matin Qaim, 2020. "Weather index insurance, agricultural input use, and crop productivity in Kenya," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(1), pages 151-167, February.
    9. Moudjahid Akorédé Wabi & Wouter Vanhove & Rodrigue Idohou & Achille Hounkpèvi & Romain Lucas Glèlè Kakaï & Patrick Damme, 2024. "Midterm change in rainfall distribution in north and central Benin: implications for agricultural decision making," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 27431-27456, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hammond, James & Fraval, Simon & van Etten, Jacob & Suchini, Jose Gabriel & Mercado, Leida & Pagella, Tim & Frelat, Romain & Lannerstad, Mats & Douxchamps, Sabine & Teufel, Nils & Valbuena, Diego & va, 2017. "The Rural Household Multi-Indicator Survey (RHoMIS) for rapid characterisation of households to inform climate smart agriculture interventions: Description and applications in East Africa and Central ," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 225-233.
    2. Paswel P. Marenya & Menale Kassie & Moti Jaleta & Dil Bahadur Rahut & Olaf Erenstein, 2017. "Predicting minimum tillage adoption among smallholder farmers using micro-level and policy variables," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Silvia Silvestri & Martin Macharia & Bellancile Uzayisenga, 2019. "Analysing the potential of plant clinics to boost crop protection in Rwanda through adoption of IPM: the case of maize and maize stem borers," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(2), pages 301-315, April.
    4. Shimelis Araya Geda & Rainer Kühl, 2021. "Exploring Smallholder Farmers’ Preferences for Climate-Smart Seed Innovations: Empirical Evidence from Southern Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, March.
    5. R. S. Ritzema & R. Frelat & S. Douxchamps & S. Silvestri & M. C. Rufino & M. Herrero & K. E. Giller & S. López-Ridaura & N. Teufel & B. K. Paul & M. T. Wijk, 2017. "Is production intensification likely to make farm households food-adequate? A simple food availability analysis across smallholder farming systems from East and West Africa," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(1), pages 115-131, February.
    6. Suleiman O. Mamman & Kazi Sohag & Attahir B. Abubakar, 2023. "Climate change and inclusive growth in Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 2282869-228, October.
    7. Andrieu, N. & Sogoba, B. & Zougmore, R. & Howland, F. & Samake, O. & Bonilla-Findji, O. & Lizarazo, M. & Nowak, A. & Dembele, C. & Corner-Dolloff, C., 2017. "Prioritizing investments for climate-smart agriculture: Lessons learned from Mali," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 13-24.
    8. Manners, Rhys & Vandamme, Elke & Adewopo, Julius & Thornton, Philip & Friedmann, Michael & Carpentier, Sebastien & Ezui, Kodjovi Senam & Thiele, Graham, 2021. "Suitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Louise Beveridge & Stephen Whitfield & Andy Challinor, 2018. "Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 475-489, April.
    10. MAMOUDOU Ba & Mazhar Mughal, 2022. "Weather Shocks, Coping Strategies and Household Well-being: Evidence from Rural Mauritania," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 482-502, March.
    11. Ebunoluwa O. Ajagun & George Ashiagbor & Winston A. Asante & Benjamin A. Gyampoh & Kwasi A. Obirikorang & Emmanuel Acheampong, 2022. "Cocoa eats the food: expansion of cocoa into food croplands in the Juabeso District, Ghana," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(2), pages 451-470, April.
    12. Tran, Nhuong & Shikuku, Kelvin Mashisia & Peart, Jeffrey & Chan, Chin Yee & Chu, Long & Bailey, Conner & Valdivia, Roberto, 2022. "A Review of economic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in fisheries and aquaculture," SocArXiv zctxn, Center for Open Science.
    13. Pierre Damien Ntihinyurwa & Walter Timo de Vries, 2021. "Farmland Fragmentation, Farmland Consolidation and Food Security: Relationships, Research Lapses and Future Perspectives," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-39, January.
    14. Dolinska, Aleksandra & Hassenforder, Emeline & Loboguerrero, Ana Maria & Sultan, Benjamin & Bossuet, Jérôme & Cottenceau, Jeanne & Bonatti, Michelle & Hellin, Jon & Mekki, Insaf & Drogoul, Alexis & Va, 2023. "Co-production opportunities seized and missed in decision-support frameworks for climate-change adaptation in agriculture – How do we practice the “best practice”?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    15. Oscar J. Cacho & Jonathan Moss & Philip K. Thornton & Mario Herrero & Ben Henderson & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Leslie Lipper, 2020. "The value of climate-resilient seeds for smallholder adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1213-1229, October.
    16. Stephen Whitfield & Sarah Chapman & Marcelin Tonye Mahop & Chetan Deva & Kennedy Masamba & Andekelile Mwamahonje, 2021. "Exploring assumptions in crop breeding for climate resilience: opportunities and principles for integrating climate model projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    18. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
    19. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Cathy R. Farnworth & Ritika Khurana & Srabashi Ray & Tek B. Sapkota & Dil Bahadur Rahut, 2020. "Does women’s participation in agricultural technology adoption decisions affect the adoption of climate‐smart agriculture? Insights from Indo‐Gangetic Plains of India," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 973-990, August.
    20. Islam, Zeenatul & Sabiha, Noor E & Salim, Ruhul, 2022. "Integrated environment-smart agricultural practices: A strategy towards climate-resilient agriculture," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 59-72.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:10:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s12571-018-0839-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.