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Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

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  • Jan Oosterhaven
  • Johannes Többen

Abstract

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper further develops a new methodology to estimate the wider, indirect impacts of major disasters, and applies it to the 2013 heavy flooding of southern and eastern Germany. We model the attempts of economic actors to continue their usual activities, as closely as possible, by minimizing the information gain between the pre- and post-disaster pattern of economic transactions of the economy at hand. Findings show that government support of local final demand substantially reduces the indirect losses of the floods, while having a disaster at the top of the business cycle increases them. Moreover, we find that assuming fixed trade origin shares and fixed industry market shares, as in all multiregional input–output models, leads to implausibly large estimates of the indirect losses.

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  • Jan Oosterhaven & Johannes Többen, 2017. "Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 404-428, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:12:y:2017:i:4:p:404-428
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2017.1300680
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    5. Julio G. Fournier Gabela & Luis Sarmiento, 2020. "Kurzarbeit and Natural Disasters: How Effective Are Short-Time Working Allowances in Avoiding Unemployment?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Antoine Mandel & Timothy Tiggeloven & Daniel Lincke & Elco Koks & Philip Ward & Jochen Hinkel, 2021. "Risks on global financial stability induced by climate change: the case of flood risks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-24, May.
    7. David Nortes Martínez & Frédéric Grelot & Pauline Bremond & Stefano Farolfi & Juliette Rouchier, 2021. "Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France," Post-Print hal-03609616, HAL.
    8. Rose, Adam & Wei, Dan & Paul, Donald, 2018. "Economic consequences of and resilience to a disruption of petroleum trade: The role of seaports in U.S. energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 584-615.
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    11. Bonfiglio, Andrea & Coderoni, Silvia & Esposti, Roberto, 2022. "Policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic waves: Cross-region and cross-sector economic impact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 252-279.
    12. Irfan Ahmed & Claudio Socci & Rosita Pretaroli & Francesca Severini & Stefano Deriu, 2022. "Socioeconomic spillovers of the 2016–2017 Italian earthquakes: a bi-regional inoperability model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 426-453, January.
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    14. Ortuzar, Iban & Serrano, Ana & Xabadia, Àngels, 2023. "Macroeconomic impacts of water allocation under droughts. Accounting for global supply chains in a multiregional context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

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