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The Impact of Forced Migration on Mortality: Evidence From German Pension Insurance Records

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas K. Bauer

    (RWI
    Ruhr-University Bochum
    Institute of Labor Economics (IZA))

  • Matthias Giesecke

    (RWI
    Institute of Labor Economics (IZA))

  • Laura M. Janisch

    (RWI
    Ruhr Graduate School in Economics (RGS Econ))

Abstract

We examine the long-run effects of forced migration for individuals who were displaced from Eastern Europe to Germany in the aftermath of World War II. Evidence suggests that displaced individuals were worse off economically, facing a considerably lower income and a higher unemployment risk than comparable nondisplaced Germans, even 20 years after being expelled. We extend this literature by investigating mortality outcomes. Using social security records that document the exact date of death and a proxy for pre-retirement lifetime earnings, we estimate a significantly and considerably higher mortality risk among forced migrants compared with nondisplaced West Germans. The adverse displacement effect persists throughout the earnings distribution except for the top quintile. Although forced migrants were generally worse off regarding mortality outcomes, those with successful labor market histories seem to have overcome the long-lasting negative consequences of flight and expulsion.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas K. Bauer & Matthias Giesecke & Laura M. Janisch, 2019. "The Impact of Forced Migration on Mortality: Evidence From German Pension Insurance Records," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(1), pages 25-47, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:56:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13524-018-0742-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-018-0742-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Giesecke, Matthias, 2019. "The retirement mortality puzzle: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Ruhr Economic Papers 800, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Serratos-Sotelo, Luis, 2021. "The Long-Term Effects of Forced Migration: An Early-Life Approach with Evidence from Yugoslavian Refugees in Sweden," Lund Papers in Economic History 228, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    3. Braun, Sebastian T. & Dwenger, Nadja, 2020. "Settlement location shapes the integration of forced migrants: Evidence from post-war Germany⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Carola Stapper, 2024. "Worker Displacement and Labor Market Success: Evidence from Forced Labor Conscription during WWII," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 338, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

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