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Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods

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  • José A. Ortega
  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

In a low fertility context demographic characteristics like the parity distribution of the population and the timing of births can lead to substantial changes in period fertility. In this article we review the literature on the analysis of fertility by parity and on tempo distortions. Both approaches can be combined through the use of the parity and age fertility model as recently proposed by Kohler and Ortega (2002a). We show applications of the approach for the analysis of both period and cohort fertility. For the analysis of period fertility a new measure is proposed, the Period Fertility Index, which is free from tempo distortions and from the influence of the population parity distribution. The Period Fertility Index is connected to the TFR by two ratios: the mean tempo effect, which generalizes previous work by Bongaarts and Feeney (1998), and the parity composition effect. Besides the period fertility index, all standard life table functions can be defined as synthetic cohort measures including mean ages at birth, interbirth intervals, parity progression rates or the stable parity distribution. From the perspective of cohort fertility it is possible to determine future childbearing intensities for conditional postponement scenarios. These can then be used for cohort completion or fertility forecasting. Examples of the different measures and techniques are given based on recent Swedish data.

Suggested Citation

  • José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-001
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-001
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680, December.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
    3. Dimiter Philipov, 2002. "Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Mathías Nathan & Ignacio Pardo & Wanda Cabella, 2016. "Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(20), pages 563-586.
    5. Suzuki, Toru & 鈴木, 透 & スズキ, トオル, 2006. "Lowest-Low Fertility and Governmental Actions in Japan," Discussion Paper 294, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Tomáš Sobotka, 2003. "Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 8(6), pages 151-214.
    7. Gunnar Andersson, 2002. "Fertility developments in Norway and Sweden since the early 1960s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(4), pages 67-86.
    8. Aart C. Liefbroer & Dimiter Philipov & Francesco C. Billari, 2006. "The Postponement of Childbearing in Europe: Driving Forces and Implications," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17.
    9. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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