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Demographic translation and tempo effects

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  • Germán Rodriguez

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

In this paper I review the concept of tempo effects in demography, focusing on the tempo adjustments proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney and drawing on the work of Ryder and Zeng and Land. I show that the period-shift model that underlies the proposed adjustments can be motivated from an accelerated failure time cohort perspective. I propose alternative measures of tempo under changing fertility and mortality that share a synthetic cohort interpretation with the adjusted measure of quantum. I stress similarities between the results for fertility and mortality, particularly in terms of mean age of childbearing and mean age at death, but also note some important distinctions. I conclude that the fertility adjustments can help distinguish quantum and tempo effects, but argue that in the case of mortality the Bongaarts-Feeney measure of tempo-adjusted life expectancy differs from conventional estimates because it reflects past mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Germán Rodriguez, 2006. "Demographic translation and tempo effects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(6), pages 85-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:14:y:2006:i:6
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michel Guillot, 2006. "Tempo effects in mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26.
    2. John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Reply," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 560-564, September.
    3. Kenneth W. Wachter, 2005. "Tempo and its Tribulations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(9), pages 201-222.
    4. Robert Schoen, 2004. "Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 801-819, November.
    5. James W. Vaupel, 2002. "Life Expectancy at Current Rates vs. Current Conditions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(8), pages 365-378.
    6. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
    7. Kenneth Land, 2001. "A sensitivity analysis of the bongaarts-feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 17-28, February.
    8. Joshua R. Goldstein, 2006. "Found in translation?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(5), pages 71-84.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua R. Goldstein & Thomas Cassidy, 2010. "Cohort postponement and period measures," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Marc Luy, 2006. "Mortality tempo-adjustment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(21), pages 561-590.
    3. Hisashi Inaba, 2007. "Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 131-168.
    4. Joseph E. Potter & Carl P. Schmertmann & Renato M. Assunção & Suzana M. Cavenaghi, 2010. "Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 283-307, June.
    5. Joshua Goldstein & Thomas Cassidy, 2014. "A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1797-1819, October.
    6. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    7. Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2008. "The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(30), pages 1179-1204.
    8. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; mortality; childbearing; death; measurements; tempo effects; tempo adjustment; period-shift model; alternative measures of tempo; age of childbearing; age at death; fertility adjustments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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