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On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures

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  • Evert van Imhoff

    (Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI))

Abstract

A particularly important struggle faced by demographic analysts is, how to arrive at statements about family formation processes from a cohort perspective from data that are essentially collected on an annual basis. The present paper is concerned with this struggle, mostly restricted to the case of fertility. The central question investigated here is: given observed period data, what can we conclude about the completed family size of real women? I review several existing methods to infer cohort fertility from period fertility measures. The conclusion is that, for each method, its justifiability can be verified only empirically: by looking at cohort fertility directly. To illustrate how this can be done, the paper analyses fertility data from a cohort perspective for two countries, Italy and the Netherlands.

Suggested Citation

  • Evert van Imhoff, 2001. "On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(2), pages 23-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:5:y:2001:i:2
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2001.5.2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228, June.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Hans-Peter Kohler & José A. Ortega, 2001. "Period parity progression measures with continued fertility postponement: a new look at the implications of delayed childbearing for cohort fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
    5. Evert van Imhoff & Nico Keilman, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 549-553, September.
    6. Keilman,N., 2000. "Demographic translation : from period to cohort perspective and back," Memorandum 06/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2004. "Old Insights and New Approaches: Fertility Analysis and Tempo Adjustment in the Age-Parity Model," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 57-90.
    2. Robert Schoen, 2004. "Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 801-819, November.
    3. Hisashi Inaba, 2007. "Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 131-168.
    4. Gunnar Andersson, 2004. "Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7), pages 155-176.
    5. Joop de Beer, 2011. "A new relational method for smoothing and projecting age-specific fertility rates: TOPALS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(18), pages 409-454.
    6. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.
    7. Tomas Sobotka & Maria Winkler-Dworak & Maria Rita Testa & Wolfgang Lutz & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt & Richard Gisser, 2005. "Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria," VID Working Papers 0501, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    8. Pao-Chih Roger Cheng & Eric S. Lin, 2010. "Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 23(9), pages 223-256.
    9. Tomáš Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220, June.
    10. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Laurent Toulemon, 2005. "Does Postponement Explain the Trend to Later Childbearing in France?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 3(1), pages 83-107.
    11. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Tomas Frejka & Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 1: Fertility in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(3), pages 15-46.
    13. Gunnar Andersson, 2003. "Childbearing developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: a comparison," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Marc Luy, 2006. "Mortality tempo-adjustment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(21), pages 561-590.
    15. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    16. Suzuki, Toru & 鈴木, 透 & スズキ, トオル, 2006. "Lowest-Low Fertility and Governmental Actions in Japan," Discussion Paper 294, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Tomáš Sobotka, 2003. "Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 8(6), pages 151-214.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; demographic transition; Italy; Netherlands; cohort fertility; total fertility rate (TFR); tempo and quantum; period adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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