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Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion

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  • Cavallini, Flavia

Abstract

I analyze the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio, combining population statistics and administrative data on induced abortions performed in Italy between 2004 and 2016. Using a shift-share instrument measuring labor demand, I exploit demand-driven shocks to unemployment. The findings indicate that both childbearing and abortions behave pro-cyclically, thus suggesting that changes in fertility rates arise not just from changes in planned pregnancy but also from a higher incidence of abortions. These effects are driven by women above 25 years old, and are particularly large in the 35–49 age group, while younger women are largely unaffected.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavallini, Flavia, 2024. "Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:87:y:2024:i:c:s0927537123001677
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102492
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility choice; Abortion ratio; Local economic conditions; Unemployment rate; Shift-share;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare

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