IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v177y2024i9d10.1007_s10584-024-03802-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Amplification of compound hot-dry extremes and associated population exposure over East Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Odhiambo Ayugi

    (Seoul National University of Science and Technology)

  • Charles Onyutha

    (Kyambogo University)

  • Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian

    (Wuxi University)

  • Huanhuan Zhu

    (Wuxi University)

  • Hassen Babousmail

    (Wuxi University)

  • Eun-Sung Chung

    (Seoul National University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Quantifying the vulnerability of population to multi-faceted climate change impacts on human well-being remains an urgent task. Recently, weather and climate extremes have evolved into bivariate events that heighten climate risks in unexpected ways. To investigate the potential impacts of climate extremes, this study analyzes the frequency, magnitude, and severity of observed and future compound hot-dry extremes (CHDEs) over East Africa. The CHDE events were computed from the observed precipitation and maximum temperature data of the Climatic Research Unit gridded Timeseries version five (CRU TS4.05) and outputs of climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, this study quantifies the population exposure to CHDE events based on future population density datasets under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Using the 75th/90th and 25th/10th percentile of precipitation and temperature as threshold to define severe and moderate events, the results show that the East African region experienced multiple moderate and severe CHDE events during the last twenty years. Based on a weighted multi-model ensemble, projections indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of moderate CHDE will double, and severe CHDE will be 1.6 times that of baseline (i.e., an increase of 60%). Strong evidence of an upward trajectory is noted after 2080 for both moderate and severe CHDE. Southern parts of Tanzania and northeastern Kenya are likely to be the most affected, with all models agreeing (signal-to-noise ratio, SNR > 1), indicating a likely higher magnitude of change during the mid- and far-future. Consequentially, population exposure to these impacts is projected to increase by up to 60% for moderate and severe CHDEs in parts of southern Tanzania. Attribution analysis highlights that climate change is the primary driver of CHDE exposure under the two emission pathways. The current study underscores the urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions to prevent exceeding global warming thresholds and to develop regional adaptation measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Odhiambo Ayugi & Charles Onyutha & Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian & Huanhuan Zhu & Hassen Babousmail & Eun-Sung Chung, 2024. "Amplification of compound hot-dry extremes and associated population exposure over East Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(9), pages 1-23, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03802-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03802-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03802-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-024-03802-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bryan Jones & Brian C. O’Neill & Larry McDaniel & Seth McGinnis & Linda O. Mearns & Claudia Tebaldi, 2015. "Future population exposure to US heat extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 652-655, July.
    2. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Jordan I. Christian & Jeffrey B. Basara & Eric D. Hunt & Jason A. Otkin & Jason C. Furtado & Vimal Mishra & Xiangming Xiao & Robb M. Randall, 2021. "Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sri Hasnawati & Mustofa Usman & Ahmad Faisol & Faiz A. M. Elfaki, 2023. "Analysis and Modeling Gross Domestic Product, Carbon Dioxide Emission, Population Growth, and Life Expectancy at Birth: Case Study in Qatar," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 467-483, March.
    2. Yuqing Zhang & Guangxiong Mao & Changchun Chen & Liucheng Shen & Binyu Xiao, 2021. "Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    3. Salvi Asefi-Najafabady & Karen L Vandecar & Anton Seimon & Peter Lawrence & Deborah Lawrence, 2018. "Climate change, population, and poverty: vulnerability and exposure to heat stress in countries bordering the Great Lakes of Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 561-573, June.
    4. Binita KC & J. M. Shepherd & Anthony W. King & Cassandra Johnson Gaither, 2021. "Multi-hazard climate risk projections for the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1963-1976, January.
    5. K. Shuvo Bakar & Huidong Jin, 2018. "Spatio-temporal quantitative links between climatic extremes and population flows: a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 139-153, May.
    6. Elisabeth Tschumi & Jakob Zscheischler, 2020. "Countrywide climate features during recorded climate-related disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 593-609, February.
    7. Anna Marandi & Kelly Leilani Main, 2021. "Vulnerable City, recipient city, or climate destination? Towards a typology of domestic climate migration impacts in US cities," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 465-480, September.
    8. Franz Schug & David Frantz & Sebastian van der Linden & Patrick Hostert, 2021. "Gridded population mapping for Germany based on building density, height and type from Earth Observation data using census disaggregation and bottom-up estimates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Dan Wanyama & Erin L. Bunting & Nicholas Weil & David Keellings, 2023. "Delineating and characterizing changes in heat wave events across the United States climate regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-23, February.
    10. Flavio Lehner & Clara Deser & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 363-375, February.
    11. Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
    12. Ariane Middel & Jonas Lukasczyk & Ross Maciejewski, 2017. "Sky View Factors from Synthetic Fisheye Photos for Thermal Comfort Routing—A Case Study in Phoenix, Arizona," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 2(1), pages 19-30.
    13. Yan Yu & Jiafu Mao & Stan D. Wullschleger & Anping Chen & Xiaoying Shi & Yaoping Wang & Forrest M. Hoffman & Yulong Zhang & Eric Pierce, 2022. "Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Chenghao Wang & Jiyun Song & Dachuan Shi & Janet L. Reyna & Henry Horsey & Sarah Feron & Yuyu Zhou & Zutao Ouyang & Ying Li & Robert B. Jackson, 2023. "Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Jenna Dodson & Patricia Dérer & Philip Cafaro & Frank Götmark, 2022. "Population growth, family planning and the Paris Agreement: an assessment of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs)," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 561-576, September.
    16. Zhang, Yitong & Hao, Zengchao & Zhang, Yu, 2023. "Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    17. Ayşegül Kuzucu & Gülay Onuşluel Gül, 2023. "Analysis of Drought Dynamics over Annual Maximum Drought Severity Series Based on Daily Index Definitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1421-1436, February.
    18. Hamidreza Zoraghein & Brian C. O'Neill, 2020. "A spatial population downscaling model for integrated human-environment analysis in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(54), pages 1563-1606.
    19. Mathew E. Hauer & Carl P. Schmertmann, 2020. "Population Pyramids Yield Accurate Estimates of Total Fertility Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 221-241, February.
    20. Frankovic, Ivan, 2017. "The impact of climate change on health expenditures," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2017, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03802-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.