IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v167y2021i3d10.1007_s10584-021-03191-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management

Author

Listed:
  • Siatwiinda M. Siatwiinda

    (Wageningen University
    Wageningen University
    Mulungushi University)

  • Iwan Supit

    (Wageningen University)

  • Bert van Hove

    (Wageningen University
    Wageningen University)

  • Olusegun Yerokun

    (Formerly, Mulungushi University)

  • Gerard H. Ros

    (Wageningen University)

  • Wim de Vries

    (Wageningen University)

Abstract

Maize production in Zambia is characterized by significant yield gaps attributed to nutrient management and climate change threatens to widen these gaps unless agronomic management is optimized. Insights in the impacts of climate change on maize yields and the potential to mitigate negative impacts by crop management are currently lacking for Zambia. Using five Global Circulation models and the WOFOST crop model, we assessed climate change impacts on maize yields at a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Impacts were assessed for the near future (2035-2066) and far future (2065-2096) in comparison with a reference period (1971-2001). The surface temperature and warm days (above 30 °C) are projected to increase strongly in the southern and western regions. Precipitation is expected to decline, except in the northern regions, whereas the number of wet days declines everywhere, shortening the growing season. The risk of crop failure in western and southern regions increases due to dry spells and heat stress, while crops in the northern regions will be threatened by flooding or waterlogging due to heavy precipitation. The simulated decline in the water-limited and water- and nutrient-limited maize yields varied from 15 to 20% in the near future and from 20 to 40% in the far future, mainly due to the expected temperature increases. Optimizing management by adjusting planting dates and maize variety selection can counteract these impacts by 6-29%. The existing gaps between water-limited and nutrient-limited maize yields are substantially larger than the expected yield decline due to climate change. Improved nutrient management is therefore crucial to boost maize production in Zambia.

Suggested Citation

  • Siatwiinda M. Siatwiinda & Iwan Supit & Bert van Hove & Olusegun Yerokun & Gerard H. Ros & Wim de Vries, 2021. "Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03191-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03191-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03191-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03191-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhiying Xu & Zhengfei Guan & T.S. Jayne & Roy Black, 2009. "Factors influencing the profitability of fertilizer use on maize in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 437-446, July.
    2. N. Fauchereau & S. Trzaska & M. Rouault & Y. Richard, 2003. "Rainfall Variability and Changes in Southern Africa during the 20th Century in the Global Warming Context," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 139-154, June.
    3. Benedikt Becsi & Daniela Hohenwallner-Ries & Torsten Grothmann & Andrea Prutsch & Tobias Huber & Herbert Formayer, 2020. "Towards better informed adaptation strategies: co-designing climate change impact maps for Austrian regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 393-411, February.
    4. A. Araya & P. V. V. Prasad & P. H. Gowda & M. Djanaguiraman & A. H. Kassa, 2020. "Potential impacts of climate change factors and agronomic adaptation strategies on wheat yields in central highlands of Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 461-479, April.
    5. Aslihan Arslan & Nancy McCarthy & Leslie Lipper & Solomon Asfaw & Andrea Cattaneo & Misael Kokwe, 2015. "Climate Smart Agriculture? Assessing the Adaptation Implications in Zambia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 753-780, September.
    6. Deepak K. Ray & James S. Gerber & Graham K. MacDonald & Paul C. West, 2015. "Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, May.
    7. Baris Karapinar & Gökhan Özertan, 2020. "Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 453-472, February.
    8. Jain, Suman, 2007. "An empirical economic assessment of impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4291, The World Bank.
    9. Kathleen Brüssow & Christoph Gornott & Anja Faße & Ulrike Grote, 2019. "The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 545-563, December.
    10. Tsang, Eric W. K., 2014. "Old and New," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 390-390, November.
    11. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    12. Julius Kotir, 2011. "Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 587-605, June.
    13. de Wit, Allard & Boogaard, Hendrik & Fumagalli, Davide & Janssen, Sander & Knapen, Rob & van Kraalingen, Daniel & Supit, Iwan & van der Wijngaart, Raymond & van Diepen, Kees, 2019. "25 years of the WOFOST cropping systems model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 154-167.
    14. Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
    15. Tomislav Hengl & Gerard B M Heuvelink & Bas Kempen & Johan G B Leenaars & Markus G Walsh & Keith D Shepherd & Andrew Sila & Robert A MacMillan & Jorge Mendes de Jesus & Lulseged Tamene & Jérôme E Tond, 2015. "Mapping Soil Properties of Africa at 250 m Resolution: Random Forests Significantly Improve Current Predictions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-26, June.
    16. Baris Karapinar & Gökhan Özertan, 2020. "Correction to: Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 271-271, January.
    17. A. J. Challinor & J. Watson & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Howden & D. R. Smith & N. Chhetri, 2014. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 287-291, April.
    18. Hannah Nissan & Lisa Goddard & Erin Coughlan de Perez & John Furlow & Walter Baethgen & Madeleine C. Thomson & Simon J. Mason, 2019. "On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(3), May.
    19. Izidine Pinto & Christopher Lennard & Mark Tadross & Bruce Hewitson & Alessandro Dosio & Grigory Nikulin & Hans-Juergen Panitz & Mxolisi E. Shongwe, 2016. "Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 655-668, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Bilson Obour & Isaac Kwamena Arthur & Kwadwo Owusu, 2022. "The 2020 Maize Production Failure in Ghana: A Case Study of Ejura-Sekyedumase Municipality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Colonel Innocent Jere & Colonel (Dr) John R Kisilu (PhD) & Colonel (Dr) Charles Imbiakha, 2024. "Evaluating Strategies to Enhance Existing Policies and Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Security in Zambia," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(6), pages 1987-1999, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akpoti, Komlavi & Groen, Thomas & Dossou-Yovo, Elliott & Kabo-bah, Amos T. & Zwart, Sander J., 2022. "Climate change-induced reduction in agricultural land suitability of West-Africa's inland valley landscapes," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Batanai Sammie & Elvis Mupfiga & Liboster Mwadzingeni & Tavengwa Chitata & Raymond Mugandani, 2021. "A gendered lens to self-evaluated and actual climate change knowledge," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 65-75, March.
    3. Sara Minoli & Jonas Jägermeyr & Senthold Asseng & Anton Urfels & Christoph Müller, 2022. "Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Philip Antwi-Agyei & Andrew J. Dougill & Lindsay C. Stringer, 2017. "Assessing Coherence between Sector Policies and Climate Compatible Development: Opportunities for Triple Wins," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Patel, Pralit & Abigail, Snyder & Wise, Marshall & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Hejazi, Mohamad & Edmonds, James, 2021. "Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets," Conference papers 333245, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    7. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    8. P. Harrison & R. Dunford & C. Savin & M. Rounsevell & I. Holman & A. Kebede & B. Stuch, 2015. "Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 279-292, February.
    9. Tebogo B. Seleka, 2022. "Old wine in a new bottle? Impact of the ISPAAD input subsidy program on the subsistence economy in Botswana," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 298-322, February.
    10. Agir, Seven & Derin-Gure, Pinar & Senturk, Bilge, 2023. "Farmers’ perspectives on challenges and opportunities of agrivoltaics in Turkiye: An institutional perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 35-49.
    11. Wineman, Ayala, 2016. "Multidimensional Household Food Security Measurement in Rural Zambia," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 55(3), September.
    12. Spalding-Fecher, Randall. & Senatla, Mamahloko & Yamba, Francis & Lukwesa, Biness & Himunzowa, Grayson & Heaps, Charles & Chapman, Arthur & Mahumane, Gilberto & Tembo, Bernard & Nyambe, Imasiku, 2017. "Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 403-414.
    13. Wolf, Joost & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Kros, Johannes & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Britz, Wolfgang & Reinds, Gert Jan & Ewert, Frank & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-73.
    14. Minghui Zhang & Gabriel Abrahao & Sally Thompson, 2021. "Sensitivity of soybean planting date to wet season onset in Mato Grosso, Brazil, and implications under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-28, October.
    15. Titta Majasalmi & Micky Allen & Clara Antón-Fernández & Rasmus Astrup & Ryan M. Bright, 2020. "A simple grid-based framework for simulating forest structural trajectories linked to transient forest management scenarios in Fennoscandia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2139-2155, October.
    16. Emily Ho & David V. Budescu & Valentina Bosetti & Detlef P. Vuuren & Klaus Keller, 2019. "Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 545-561, August.
    17. Nguyen-Anh, Tuan & Hoang-Duc, Chinh & Tiet, Tuyen & Nguyen-Van, Phu & To-The, Nguyen, 2022. "Composite effects of human, natural and social capitals on sustainable food-crop farming in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Alison Rothwell & Brad Ridoutt & William Bellotti, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Livia Rasche & Uwe A. Schneider & Martha Bolívar Lobato & Ruth Sos Del Diego & Tobias Stacke, 2018. "Benefits of Coordinated Water Resource System Planning in the Cauca-Magdalena River Basin," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-27, January.
    20. Meredith T. Niles & Margaret Brown & Robyn Dynes, 2016. "Farmer’s intended and actual adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 277-295, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03191-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.