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On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development

Author

Listed:
  • Hannah Nissan
  • Lisa Goddard
  • Erin Coughlan de Perez
  • John Furlow
  • Walter Baethgen
  • Madeleine C. Thomson
  • Simon J. Mason

Abstract

Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end‐of‐century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter‐term risks and climate variability, and constitutes a substantial opportunity cost for the limited financial and human resources available to tackle development challenges. When a long‐term view genuinely is relevant to decision‐making, much of the information available is not fit for purpose. Climate model projections are able to capture many aspects of the climate system and so can be relied upon to guide mitigation plans and broad adaptation strategies, but the use of these models to guide local, practical adaptation actions is unwarranted. Climate models are unable to represent future conditions at the degree of spatial, temporal, and probabilistic precision with which projections are often provided, which gives a false impression of confidence to users of climate change information. In this article, we outline these issues, review their history, and provide a set of practical steps for both the development and climate scientist communities to consider. Solutions to mobilize the best available science include a focus on decision‐relevant timescales, an increased role for model evaluation and expert judgment and the integration of climate variability into climate change services. This article is categorized under: Climate and Development > Knowledge and Action in Development

Suggested Citation

  • Hannah Nissan & Lisa Goddard & Erin Coughlan de Perez & John Furlow & Walter Baethgen & Madeleine C. Thomson & Simon J. Mason, 2019. "On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(3), May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:10:y:2019:i:3:n:e579
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.579
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    Cited by:

    1. Vittorio Serra & Antonio Ledda & Maria Grazia Gavina Ruiu & Giovanna Calia & Valentina Mereu & Valentina Bacciu & Serena Marras & Donatella Spano & Andrea De Montis, 2022. "Adaptation to Climate Change Across Local Policies: An Investigation in Six Italian Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    3. Theodore G. Shepherd & Elisabeth A. Lloyd, 2021. "Meaningful climate science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Barbara Kęsicka & Rafał Stasik & Michał Kozłowski & Adam Choryński, 2023. "Is Controlled Drainage of Agricultural Land a Common Used Practice?—A Bibliographic Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Siatwiinda M. Siatwiinda & Iwan Supit & Bert van Hove & Olusegun Yerokun & Gerard H. Ros & Wim de Vries, 2021. "Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Robert Wilby & Xianfu Lu, 2022. "Tailoring climate information and services for adaptation actors with diverse capabilities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-13, October.

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