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Rainfall Variability and Changes in Southern Africa during the 20th Century in the Global Warming Context

Author

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  • N. Fauchereau
  • S. Trzaska
  • M. Rouault
  • Y. Richard

Abstract

Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. After a shortreview of the main conclusions of various experiments with Global AtmosphericModels (GCM) forced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases for SouthernAfrica, a study of various datasets documents the observed changes in rainfall featuresat both daily and seasonal time steps through the last century. Investigations of dailyrainfall parameters are so far limited to South Africa. They show that some regionshave experienced a shift toward more extreme rainfall events in recent decades.Investigations of cumulative rainfall anomalies over the summer season do notshow any trend to drier or moister conditions during the century. However, closeexamination reveals that rainfall variability in Southern Africa has experiencedsignificant modifications, especially in the recent decades. Interannual variabilityhas increased since the late 1960s. In particular, droughts became more intense andwidespread. More significantly, teleconnection patterns associated with SouthernAfrican rainfall variability changed from regional before the 70s to near global after,and an increased statistical association to the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is observed. Numerical experiments with a French GCM indicate that these changes in teleconnections could be related to long-term variations in the Sea-Surface-Temperature background, which are part of the observed global warming signal. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Suggested Citation

  • N. Fauchereau & S. Trzaska & M. Rouault & Y. Richard, 2003. "Rainfall Variability and Changes in Southern Africa during the 20th Century in the Global Warming Context," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 139-154, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:29:y:2003:i:2:p:139-154
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1023630924100
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    Cited by:

    1. Saon Banerjee & Subharanjan Das & Asis Mukherjee & Apurba Mukherjee & B. Saikia, 2016. "Adaptation strategies to combat climate change effect on rice and mustard in Eastern India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 249-261, February.
    2. Flatø, Martin & Muttarak, Raya & Pelser, André, 2017. "Women, Weather, and Woes: The Triangular Dynamics of Female-Headed Households, Economic Vulnerability, and Climate Variability in South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 41-62.
    3. Corene Matyas & Julie Silva, 2013. "Extreme weather and economic well-being in rural Mozambique," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(1), pages 31-49, March.
    4. Batanai Sammie & Elvis Mupfiga & Liboster Mwadzingeni & Tavengwa Chitata & Raymond Mugandani, 2021. "A gendered lens to self-evaluated and actual climate change knowledge," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 65-75, March.
    5. Maik Veste & Thomas Littmann & Anton Kunneke & Ben du Toit & Thomas Seifert, 2020. "Windbreaks as part of climate-smart landscapes reduce evapotranspiration in vineyards, Western Cape Province, South Africa," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(3), pages 119-127.
    6. Libanda Brigadier & Bob Alex Ogwang & Victor Ongoma & Chilekana Ngonga & Linda Nyasa, 2016. "Diagnosis of the 2010 DJF flood over Zambia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 189-201, March.
    7. Jinling Piao & Wen Chen & Jin-Soo Kim & Wen Zhou & Shangfeng Chen & Peng Hu & Xiaoqing Lan, 2023. "Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    8. Libanda Brigadier & Bob Ogwang & Victor Ongoma & Chilekana Ngonga & Linda Nyasa, 2016. "Diagnosis of the 2010 DJF flood over Zambia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 189-201, March.
    9. Fhumulani Mathivha & Caston Sigauke & Hector Chikoore & John Odiyo, 2020. "Short-Term and Medium-Term Drought Forecasting Using Generalized Additive Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Sileshi, Gudeta W. & Akinnifesi, Festus K. & Ajayi, Oluyede C. & Muys, Bart, 2011. "Integration of legume trees in maize-based cropping systems improves rain use efficiency and yield stability under rain-fed agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(9), pages 1364-1372, July.
    11. Cliff Zinyemba & Emma Archer & Hanna-Andrea Rother, 2020. "Climate Change, Pesticides and Health: Considering the Risks and Opportunities of Adaptation for Zimbabwean Smallholder Cotton Growers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. C. Haque & Ian Burton, 2005. "Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 335-353, July.
    13. Jimmy Byakatonda & B. P. Parida & Ditiro B. Moalafhi & Piet K. Kenabatho & David Lesolle, 2020. "Investigating relationship between drought severity in Botswana and ENSO," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 255-278, January.
    14. Izidine Pinto & Christopher Lennard & Mark Tadross & Bruce Hewitson & Alessandro Dosio & Grigory Nikulin & Hans-Juergen Panitz & Mxolisi E. Shongwe, 2016. "Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 655-668, April.
    15. Bunting, Erin L. & Fullman, Timothy & Kiker, Gregory & Southworth, Jane, 2016. "Utilization of the SAVANNA model to analyze future patterns of vegetation cover in Kruger National Park under changing climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 147-160.
    16. Siatwiinda M. Siatwiinda & Iwan Supit & Bert van Hove & Olusegun Yerokun & Gerard H. Ros & Wim de Vries, 2021. "Climate change impacts on rainfed maize yields in Zambia under conventional and optimized crop management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-23, August.
    17. Nyagumbo, Isaiah & Mkuhlani, Siyabusa & Mupangwa, Walter & Rodriguez, Daniel, 2017. "Planting date and yield benefits from conservation agriculture practices across Southern Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 21-33.
    18. Madhav L Khandekar, 2005. "Extreme Weather Trends Vs. Dangerous Climate Change: A Need for Critical Reassessment," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(2), pages 327-331, March.

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