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A worldwide analysis of trend in crop yields and yield variability: Evidence from FAO data

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  • Arata, Linda
  • Fabrizi, Enrico
  • Sckokai, Paolo

Abstract

The trend in crop yields and yield variability affects food security and impact agricultural and food policies. Recent studies in this area have either focused only on one country or performed global analysis on a handful of crops. We provide the first worldwide analysis of trend and variability for 8088 country-crop yield series taken from the FAO database, employing a robust estimator to cope with the adverse statistical effects of outliers. More than half of the series display a slowdown in yield growth due to a closing of the gap between realised and attainable yields as well as to agricultural policies promoting more sustainable agricultural practices. Around one fourth of the series show also an increase in yield variability as a consequence of climate change and changes in farm management practices. Yield variability is highest in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Middle East and North Africa, where food security may be threatened.

Suggested Citation

  • Arata, Linda & Fabrizi, Enrico & Sckokai, Paolo, 2020. "A worldwide analysis of trend in crop yields and yield variability: Evidence from FAO data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 190-208.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:90:y:2020:i:c:p:190-208
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop yield trend; Crop yield variability; Food security; MM robust Estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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