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Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Author

Listed:
  • Lourenço Manuel

    (Eduardo Mondlane University)

  • Orcídia Chiziane

    (Eduardo Mondlane University)

  • Gaby Mandhlate

    (Eduardo Mondlane University)

  • Faaiqa Hartley

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Emílio Tostão

    (Eduardo Mondlane University)

Abstract

Mozambique has historically been prone to natural disasters due to its geographical location, but over the past 20 years the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and cyclones has increased, negatively affecting the entire economy, particularly agriculture. These impacts are expected to worsen, as climatic conditions become hotter and drier. This study estimates the impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Specifically, the study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural production, looking at implications for various crops and regions in the country. It also reports climate change impacts on both urban and rural household welfare. A probabilistic approach considering a distribution of climate shocks under two global mitigation futures (i.e. unconstrained emissions and level 1 stabilization) is used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the economy, providing a range for the potential impact of climate change and the uncertainties related to it. Climate impacts are considered through five key channels: agriculture, roads, hydropower, sea-level rise and cyclones. The analysis shows that acute negative impacts are experienced in the agricultural sector, particularly for maize and cassava as crop yields decrease. Successful global mitigation efforts of reducing CO2 concentration to 560 ppm by 2100 (L1S) decreases the degree of uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the Mozambican economy, as the GDP is expected to increase up to USD 6.0 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Lourenço Manuel & Orcídia Chiziane & Gaby Mandhlate & Faaiqa Hartley & Emílio Tostão, 2021. "Impact of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique: an analysis based on a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03139-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03139-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Charles Fant & Sergey Paltsev & C. Adam Schlosser & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2019. "Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 335-349, June.
    2. Mort Webster & Andrei Sokolov & John Reilly & Chris Forest & Sergey Paltsev & Adam Schlosser & Chien Wang & David Kicklighter & Marcus Sarofim & Jerry Melillo & Ronald Prinn & Henry Jacoby, 2012. "Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 569-583, June.
    3. Paltsev, Sergey, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series 065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    5. Costa, Carlos G. & Delgado, Christopher L., 2019. "The Cassava Value Chain in Mozambique," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 31113790, The World Bank.
    6. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sergey Paltsev, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    3. Davide Bazzana & Aidin Mobasser & Sergio Vergalli, 2022. "Less Water, Less Oil: Policy Response for the Kenyan Future, a CGE Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-26, September.

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